This is my expectation over 5 years. It'll take time to unfold, so just start your preps. 2020: 35K employees. Exodus of best talent already underway will accelerate. Career growth opportunities shrink, disappear. Exit Systems business. Eliminate SSDC, 30K employees. Exit SSD business. Eliminate SSHK. 15K employees. NL capacity tops out at lowest cost/TB level. HDD commoditised. Product configurations shrink to 1. Transition to cold storage focus. 10K employees Sale of STX to WD. STX dies. SLCO closed. WD maintains supply of legacy HDD business for 10 more years, 2030: The last HDD line shuts down
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I officially too the VEEP. We should make a list. Anyone still have that lay off sheet so I can post my info?
SSDC work on and support smr products. It’s a lifeline before hamr really happen.
agreed on another poster, SSDC is really redundant and i think not cheap for the upkeep of that building
@11hALYJO-9abe: You sounds like pointing to my dear colleague 😀
Get ready for 10 platter 3.5" drives for 18-20TB as HAMR and MAMR smoke screens evaporate along with the money put into them. The backup 10 platter plan will quickly become the main plan. Probably the final HDD major product cycles over the next few years. Bank on it. Will 10 fit and will HAMR time is to legit to quit?
Please shut that SSDC down. What the point to maintain bunch of people sitting in the office waiting for their package
My surname starts with a C and ends with a L. Seagate remains innovative and has found innovative ways to save money. Recently it was decided all deaths will become bunk beds to save on space. Your manager will sit above you at all times. When you and your manager go home another manager and poor soul will take your warm seat. That's a four for the price of one, true innovation and inclusion. No integrity though. Still working on that. Your suggestions are welcome. Just mail them to 920 disc drive.
I would hazard a guess and say a lot more of R&D and other departments will move to Seagate Springtown.Cheap labor and they still receive "grants" from the various government bodies.Regularly hiring new staff in all departments.Seagate Springtown is were the company will go to die.
Why SHK? The design center lost some intersite political battles and cuts/resource removals were made so that it can no longer serve as a stand alone design center without significant re-investment. The fate was already decided at that point. The CEO worked at LCO and has an affinity for it. Yes, the building is 1/2 empty and appears nearly deserted every Friday afternoon already. People who work there are well aware of tenuous support for the site and uncertain future. I think it will be more like 2-3 years to close completely though because STX is so slow moving. NRM is also 1/2 empty or more. Some remnant of SHK may be moved there, or NRM may shutter as well. The purpose of these posts so that you are not caught up in the lies from the top guys and are caught unaware. Take advantage of your unlimited vacation all!
Great post and agree with most of original poster's predictions.
I would think SHK would be closed within a year. Half empty building today and with programs and research further decreasing there will not be a need to have this building. Once SSD and systems is shuttered in next 12 months there will be further consolidation into LCO and plenty of space.
Stx will not be bought by WD but by a tape company that actually has relevance for cold storage in the future.
IT 4.0 is hysterical. HDD stops at 3.0 and that's why it was broken out at investor day as this is the risk investor's should be modeling.
I would expect FRC to be sold in 3 years and headquarters moved to LCO. The real estate is too valuable and there is no need for stx to be near silicon valley as it is old old tech that is winding down. The sale if Cupertino proves the lack of relevance.
All support functions will be moved to a lower cost area- finance, legal, IT, etc. Not Colorado or Minnesota but a new location in the next couple of years.
Easy to rag in WD but they have options with NAND. Also They can buy HAMR heads from TDK if MAMR does not work. STX only has HAMR, talk about betting the entire company on a negative margin technology for the next 3 to 5 years. Does anyone believe ponytail was fired because HAMR works, is profitable and on time?
Remember that every extra dollar spent on people or real estate is one less dollar for investors. This is the rule moving forward.
Do they think "Edge" IT 4.0 devices are really going to run on a clunky high capacity HDD, or even talk to one over a network to make quick AI decisions? Ha! Nice magic marketing show for investors guys! Let's how putting IT 4.0 next to Seagate on a slide fools em!
What a loser company. So poorly managed by a bunch of stupid greedy pigs !
I love this one :)))
Number of employees
Correction to original forcast to date of last HDD: 2035. HAMR cost effective? Now that's probably the most optimistic forecast possible. Anyway, the top level are going to get tons of cash all the way down. 5 year harvest.
All the predictions posted have shk as the closing design center. Curious as to why?
By 2022, annual revenues are ~$8B. Systems and SSD businesses are closed, or sold if possible. One design center (SHK?) closed. Staffing is ~30,000.
By 2025, annual revenues are $5-6B. Through the strenuous efforts of engineering, HAMR at contemporaneous areal density is made cost effective. One design center is remaining, and NRM is shuttered as the capacity can be handled by STST. Staffing ~15,000.
By 2030, annual revenue is $2-3B, further areal density even with HAMR is impossible, and staff is ~5-6,000.
No sale of Seagate to WD or purchase of WD by Seagate.
My forecast from 2020 to 2025
2020: 18TB and 24TB HAMR out, WD still crawling for 18tb MAMR with Alu disks
2021: continue market leader with preparing 28TB and 32TB portfolio
2022: WD announcing 18TB MAMR products
2023/24: WD finally announced failure on MAMR, crawling back to use HAMR and paying patent for STX
2025-2026: WD preparing to close shop or bought over by STX