I automatically assumed that Giga 3 will be profitable. Due to margins being surgically removed by Elon, maybe it won't be. Regardless, it's not likely that a full production quarter will ensue until Q2 2020.
After a judge ruled that Elon broke labor laws a few different ways, expect that to embolden union organizers within the Fremont factory, and Giga 2. It will also cause MGMT to be skittish about repeating the past illegal actions. I believe the result will be a unionized Fremont plant and a unionized Giga 3 by 2021.
Expect a 1000% layoff increase for salaried at Giga 1, compared with the layoffs last Autumn and winter.. Elon has fired all he can at corporate, Fremont, and a few other Tesla outlets. All that is left is a bloated Giga 1 that needs all its cheap hourly labor to continue to produce battery packs for cars. It barely is able to give Fremont the battery packs it needs, as it is.
There is no doubt in my mind that Tesla will show annual net losses in 2020 and 2021 unless Fiat Chrysler and GM pay 2 billion in carbon credit fees in that span.
I don't believe Tesla will be consistently profitable until 2025, right about the time that 12-14 billion dollars in debt is due.