Layoffs typically increase as ROE trends downwards. And falling asset prices cause variable fees to fall. So, does the 2022 bear market point to NT layoffs? What is the correlation?
The NTRS Q1 2022 ROE of 14.2% was in line with the target range but it is a lagging indicator. Any guesses on Q2 ROE % or the forecast trend to 2023?
If there is an ROE-layoff correlation with a 2 quarter lag, then the next layoffs will be in Q1 or Q2 2023 assuming ROE declines in Q2 and Q3 2022.
There is a correlation. Declines in revenue/ROE below target levels are followed by layoffs within a few quarters. The lag is due to the planning process for layoffs.
Evidence? Look at the ROE trends preceeding "project excellence" and "value for spend".