"Our economists say there’s a 35% probability that the U.S. tips into recession over the next year, an estimate that’s well below the median of 65% among forecasters in a Wall Street Journal survey. The U.S. may avoid a downturn in part because data on economic activity is nowhere close to recessionary."
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/outlook-2023-us-expected-to-escape-recession.html