What are the chances of more cuts in the next two months?
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Fresh layoff announcement happening now
Mortgage hasn’t gotten a year end bonus in a few years. They were removed all-together from the program.
What roles done get bonuses?
I doubt there will be more layoffs between now and YE due to the requirement for a 60 day notice period. BUT you can 100% count on layoffs before bonuses are paid so they can get out of paying someone’s bonus.
I like the logic behind the last post. Historically though, there have been January layoffs. This year, with the change in PTO, they won’t be paying out any banked hours since there won’t be any, and many roles have been taken off of the annual bonus, so a lot less of that to worry about as well. January 2025 is the word on the street for the next round. Luckily, there are only really a few pay cycles before we find that out.
I'll preface this by saying I have no insider info, so this is just a best guess based on the position I'm in.
Next two months (i.e., before 2025): Low likelihood in my estimation. It would be a really bad PR move for USAA to lay people off right before the holidays. Is it possible? Of course, but as far as I know, USAA hasn't done any in the Nov-Dec time frame even when they were doing the much larger rounds a couple/few years ago. The EOY budget/payroll is already accounted for, so it wouldn't really make sense to do it now unless they wanted to get a head start on Q1 2025. It's possible, but I don't see it happening.
Next 3-6 months: This is a little complicated with the bonus. Strategically, they'd likely want people gone before the bonus pays out (which is usually end of February/beginning of March) so they're not paying out a severance and the bonus. Even if they laid off someone on 1/2/25, they'd likely still hit the cutoff date for the bonus. For that reason, I don't see them happening super early in Q1 2025 (i.e., first two-three weeks of January). I'd expect to see some in the end of January, beginning of February time frame though.
Next 6-12 months: Basically 100% likelihood. Anyone who speaks C-suite executive knows that Wayne essentially confirmed this in the last employee meeting. Amala was moved to the bank to "help out," and she's the queen of layoffs. She's gathered her intel over the last several months and already has her "list." If I were to bet, I'd expect we'd see some large rounds in the bank before the end of Q2, before Wayne leaves for good.
Next 12-18 months and beyond: This will largely depend on the next CEO, but I suspect the budget for fiscal year 2025 reflects a reduction in headcount already, so the wheels will already be in motion when they take over. I don't foresee the next CEO coming in and immediately putting an end to layoffs, especially those that have been pre-planned for this upcoming year.
My hope is that the next CEO, whoever that may be, is more akin to Joe Robles than Bob Davis. It's entirely possible that Wayne was the calm before the storm, but I sincerely hope that Wayne did all of/most of the "dirty work" (layoffs, rate increases, etc.) so that the next CEO can focus on introducing more competitive products and services. In other words, I'm hoping that Wayne is/was the "cost reduction" CEO and the next CEO is the "increase revenue" CEO. Wishful thinking, perhaps, but I do think the BoD has set the next CEO up for that based on Wayne's comment about expanded membership eligibility in the last employee meeting.
Next planed reduction is January.
Nope. 2024 rounds are done. Sr. leadership doesn’t like to do layoffs close to holidays and with the 60 day notice, that would put us right in the “USAA is a Scrooge” news headline and the Board doesn’t like that,
Next 12-18 months? 100%
Next 2 months? I'm too new to know if there is some seasonal mercy, but the concensus seems to be that there is some decency left.
But the tall question is why would you care? If you're time horizon for worry is 2 months them the answer is not actionable. You should be deep into your job search no matter what the answer is. If 2 months is the time frame that matters to you then you don't actually have time to get the answer. You need to back into your exit plan now. Because if you actually wait for an answer then is already too late.
Aml is toast. We are finishing our buckets several days before sla and they want us to do more per day.
It does not add up
Less likely in ECIO because CFPB finalized ruling on open banking on 10/22. USAA has until April 1, 2027, to comply and we barely started tokenizing Reg E and Reg Z products although we knew about this since 2022😂😂. It makes zero sense to lay people off when we are up against the clock.
Jan/Feb are almost guaranteed, IMO. Anything before then I’d doubt it. I’ve not seen FTE level hits near Thanksgiving/Christmas. But current toxic leaders surely will change that trend eventually.
If the board will have Wayne do the dirty work, the layoffs will happen before the CEO transition.
Imagine believing this
More likely in January
Slim to none.
Does USAA usually lay people off around holidays?