Thread regarding AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc.) layoffs

Risks facing AMD's future

  1. On Intel's "failure" to move to 10nm - Intel is shipping its 10nm chips in Lenovo and NUC computers right now. A patent firm tore one down and wrote a 20 page paper on it, and proclaimed it at least as good as competitors anticipated 7nm.

  2. On AMD's anticipated Rome 7nm server chips . . .

2a. Intel's 28-core Cascade Lake beat AMD's 7nm Rome for the 2019 35

PFLOPS supercomputer: "We took a look at AMD Epyc, both Naples and certainly Rome but with the combination of price, schedules, and performance,

we felt like Cascade Lake was the way to get the best value right now."

2b. AMD's anticipated 7nm producer, Global Foundries, just said they wouldn't proceed with AMD's fab. On that SAME DAY, their top "senior vice president and general manager of the Computing and Graphics Business Group"Jim Anderson left. Why would you leave a rising company?!

3b. On AMD's current Epyc chips. These are a power disaster. Those red bars are basically wasted energy.

  1. On the recent price increases. AMD has not lifted revenue, earnings, market share or other guidance since its 2Q call. In other words, the price increase since then is not based on material new information. Just FOMO.

  2. On AMD's cash cow (GPU). It just lost to NVDA which revolutionized GPUs with ray tracing. No serious gamer can see this video and not want an NVDA RTX, which is completely sold out on preorders.

  3. On the future. Intel continues to plug away . . . AI, FPGA, driverless, 5g/wireless, advanced memory, quantum (yes really ). If the past is any guide, when Intel makes money on these others will jump on board with "me too" but by then Intel will be onto the next thing.

  4. Intel is an outstanding place to work.

  5. AMD has huge political and market share risk due to a JV that allows Chinese companies to sell Epyc clones. The history is below

• In August 2015, the U.S. barred Intel (and implicitly AMD) from selling high-end server chips to a few (but not all) Chinese customers due to national security concerns. Intel complied.

• A few months later, China went to Lisa Su to get basically the same chip from AMD via a complicated joint venture that complied with the letter of the law -- because the chip would not be sold by a U.S. company but would rather be sold by the Chinese JV (so no need to ask the U.S. for permission to export it to Chinese customers).

• A month ago, China started producing these Epyc server chip clones. As this article explains, they have a different name but are EXACTLY Epyc chips.,37417.html

• The U.S. government is due to publish a report on Chinese theft of U.S. semiconductor IP that could name and shame AMD. "ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY"

Based on the timing, it's clear the ONLY reason this JV was set up was to circumvent the government's ban. Soon these chips will be in the hands of those very customers the U.S. government said couldn't have them. Soon they will be taking market share from Epyc and only paying AMD a tiny royalty, instead of the large margins it would have made on Epyc.

There are more but I hope that's enough.

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