Should I cash out my ESOP?

Anonymous · 2024-12-07T04:44:11Z

It is unlikely Cargill outperforms the S&P 500 over the long-term. Unless you are looking for stability, the S&P 500 will offer better returns vs. Cargill. Cargill’s short-term performance will not improve in the next 2-3 years given macro-challenges. If you are looking to retire soon and you have a lot of Cargill stock in your 401K, you may want to sell some and be more diversified. Cargill is an old company that is seeing declining revenue. That doesn’t make it a bad company, but your Cargill stock isn’t going to be NVIDIA either. You are going to get stable growth and steady dividends. If you have a high risk tolerance it probably doesn’t make sense to hold. Anyone who says Cargill stock would be worth 5x if it goes public doesn’t really understand how valuation works. There is no way the public markets would give Cargill a 3-5x premium over how they value ADM. Since ADM stock is the primary benchmark for the Cargill stock, it is probably fairly valued today.

It is unlikely Cargill outperforms the S&P 500 over the long-term. Unless you are looking for stability, the S&P 500 will offer better returns vs. Cargill.

Cargill’s short-term performance will not improve in the next 2-3 years given macro-challenges. If you are looking to retire soon and you have a lot of Cargill stock in your 401K, you may want to sell some and be more diversified.

Cargill is an old company that is seeing declining revenue. That doesn’t make it a bad company, but your Cargill stock isn’t going to be NVIDIA either. You are going to get stable growth and steady dividends. If you have a high risk tolerance it probably doesn’t make sense to hold.

Anyone who says Cargill stock would be worth 5x if it goes public doesn’t really understand how valuation works. There is no way the public markets would give Cargill a 3-5x premium over how they value ADM. Since ADM stock is the primary benchmark for the Cargill stock, it is probably fairly valued today.

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Cargill ESOP and Cargill class A shares are both worthless. The business is not structured to grow stock price so holding shares of either results in only 1 thing = 2-3% return from the fixed dividend (80% reinvestment/20% dividend strategy). Family only wants earnings to grow to get 20% of more $. Having shares worth more is useless due to being non-transferable in the public arena. Cash out as soon and as often to get into S&P 500. ...and if Cargill sold? ESOP shares will be cashed out at current value or transferred to new company at current value = not real ownership. Class A shares = who would pay more than current value for a low margin company? Probably get sold at $50/share = loss. But that won't matter to those that own $150B of shares, take the $50B loss on taxes and walk away with $100B in cash.

Look at your numbers and make your own informed decision, I sell as fast and as often as possible

How do you know the value of your stock?

Thread regarding Cargill layoffs

Should I cash out my ESOP?

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