In past also AMD (Athelon & 1 GHz race) , IBM (PowerPC) and DEC (Alpha processors) threatened Intel and it appeared that Intel wont recover. But we did recover and went on to newer heights with revenues and profitability. Will we be able to repeat that trend reversal this time? Somehow, it feels different this time.
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TFW CEO candidates who a mere 5 years earlier wanted the job all said they didn't want it anymore after the BOD approached them,
Go from 2-3 year process lead to 2-3 year process deficit... in the span of a 6 year period. Unbelievable.
@2vbg+180AmReu As to talent, the best used to go to semi, but now the best go to the software, or hardware like Apple.
Why would and aspiring designer or architect go to Intel when you got AMD or Nvidia.
Pick a company with 2nd rate bean counter as CEO or work for a company with a technically oriented CEO who has vision and executed.
One bean, two bean, we FUBARed 10 and 7 and now we go outside to manufacture, some vision or leadership, what talent would want to come, more bean counters
@COB, are you sure its a talent problem ?
I am not so sure about it.
When you stumble you need resources, scale, and resolve to recover.
In Intels hey day they made a lot of mistakes but because of huge scale in market with little alternatives they used their near monopoly and predatory behavior and huge money and scale to get leadership back. Remember they were late to RISC, late to multi core, late to copper, they really didn’t innovate as they didn’t have to. Others innovated and if it was good they copied it later and they used their scale and profits to claw back.
DEC Alpha appeared superior but didn’t have scale and revenue wasn’t enough to fund silicon RD to keep and they sold it all to Intel.
POWER alliance looked dangerous early on too but even with alliance they could match intel spending on silicon and fell behind that even Apple had to give up and adopt x86
ARM was nothing either till the rise of a billions volume from smartphones. A billion Chips a year leads to lots of money.
It all could have been Intels but PSO passed and LTD failed to provide a real foundry capability.
So Apple went to TSMC and the rest is history. That decision by PSO to turn down Apple made TSMC what it is today. They now have more money and volume to fund silicon. Now TSMC with AMD, Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Facebook, all feed the TSMC virtuous silicon and Foundry cycle. No way intel can compete or recover no way. Intel goes like IBM they are finished.
Bean counter Bob can count how much easier it is to go to TSMC versus fight and try to catch up with the Hillbillies in Hillsboro who ruined it all and continue to flail themselves with poor management and fall further and further behind.
No this time is different a total FUBAR
Broadly speaking there are 3 pillars of a chip product: Design/Architecture, Manufacturing/Supply Chain, Sales/Marketing.
Intel always had leads in at least 2/3 of those pillars that allowed it to retake the lead from its competitors. Now it has only 1/3. Can you guess which one? That's a shaky foundation.
On top of that, some of its largest customers are make competing products to insource their chip solutions.
I think we need to replace bean counter bob. Nice guy but over paid.
Uh except last time Intel didn't completely screw up its manufacturing
I feel it'll be harder this time because some of Intel's competitors(i.e. NVIDIA(including ARM), AMD, Apple silicon, TSMC) are better funded than Intel. Intel has also lost so much talent in the last 5-10 years to make the turnaround that much harder. Unless Intel's willing to sacrifice profit short term to beef up its talent pool, I think it'll continue the downward spiral.