‘Content arms race’
AT&T’s attempt to crack the media market is just the latest example of a telecoms company trying to use its giant cash reserves to expand into content, sports broadcasting or advertising. Few have succeeded and most, like Verizon and Vodafone, have struck deals with media companies like Disney or Spotify to bundle the content into their broadband and 5G packages rather than taking control of producing the content.
Taking on Netflix and Disney requires an “all in” mentality due to the amount of money that needs to be spent, says Jimmy Maymann, a former AOL and Huffington Post executive who sits on the board of Swedish telecoms and media company Telia. “If you are not willing to play in the content arms race then you can’t win,” he says, something AT&T struggled to do due to its debt and the cost of running its telecoms network.
For months, AT&T toyed with the idea of selling or spinning off CNN, while some HBO executives were also hoping to be sold or split from the mothership. Stankey, however, viewed its HBO Max streaming platform — home to hit shows including Succession and Mare of Easttown — as a key tenet of AT&T’s vision to be the world’s largest integrated content and distribution company.
The reversal has left AT&T fighting a rearguard action against accusations it has destroyed tens of billions of dollars in shareholder value, mostly at DirecTV, and distracted itself at a crucial time in the evolution towards 5G and fibre.
McElfresh insists that the combination benefited both sides of the business, with HBO Max given a strong start by the distribution power of AT&T’s telecoms business and sales of its fibre and 5G packages bolstered as the premium content was bundled in. What was missing was the “reward” for shareholders. AT&T’s market value has been treading water while those of pure play media companies like Disney and Netflix soared. That disparity forced the issue.
‘The great escape’
Barry Diller, the media billionaire, described the split of AT&T and what will be called Warner Bros Discovery as “the great escape” for both sides of the business. More telling was his view, in an interview with CNBC, that after so many missteps “Ma Bell should have been dead and buried by now”.
That is a media industry view, shared by some M&A bankers, but AT&T remains a huge, cash-generating business with 186m wireless subscribers, including smart gadgets, and 14m broadband customers across the US.
“Walking away from content was the right call,” says the veteran executive. “What we do next is very unclear. Being just a wireless and broadband company isn’t very exciting and the competition has [become] significantly harder.”
According to McElfresh, the target is to expand its fibre network to 30m homes by 2025 and to go “full throttle” in 5G. AT&T plans to spend $24bn in 2023 — around 20 per cent of its revenue — on its network, which would make it the single largest infrastructure investor in the US.
The company, like its US and European peers, has gone back to the future by returning its network to the centre of its strategy while also cutting its dividend. Some point to Verizon’s decision to wash its hands of its own ill-advised media acquisitions. Since the start of the year, it has sold the ru-p of the AOL and Yahoo assets it owned in order to target supremacy in 5G.
AT&T is no longer in pole position. Spinning out WarnerMedia equity could value the core “new” AT&T at about $130bn. That compares with Verizon at $232bn, Comcast at $262bn and T-Mobile at $175bn.
McElfresh, who was promoted to run the then struggling telecoms business in 2019, has presided over two of the best quarters for wireless subscription additions in a decade over the past 12 months. But he admits the company “has nothing to brag about”, having fallen behind Verizon and T-Mobile in the wireless market.
“We don’t like being number three in a three horse race,” he says, pointing to the company’s heritage and innovative past — as any true bellhead would.