@dkvs+1hJAlMW2 If you want to talk about something anecdotal - I would look at the random phenomena that you were highlighting while trying to paint a narrative of CC success.
What do you really know about the stock market? Do you know the stock price isn't a real time measure of value? This is why people can make and lose money in the market - because the prices are not tethered to this moment in reality. Robinhood stock was worth less than the cash that Robinhood had on hand (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/robinhood-s-stock-is-now-worth-less-than-its-cash-on-hand)! The stock price is a measure of all the investors that are locked in mixed-in with a little bit of manipulation. Anything you see on MSM is a pump and dump like UPST (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKoa5xGwtJk&ab_channel=RacingVideoGamer).
We are on the verge of one of the greatest market crashes of our lifetimes. The government just redefined recession to say that we aren't in a recession - that's not good. As Mark Cuban would say - "everyone is a genius in a bull market." Do you know how much toxic MBS and CMBS the fed has been purchasing trying to keep this dumpster fire/bubble of a market from exploding? In order to prop up the CMBS market, we need butts in buildings working, spending cash on gas, spending cash on restaurants, and not saving.
What do you know about maintaining a REIT status? There are many ways to lose REIT status including not having the right proportion of investors to 50% ownership [https://www.reit.com/what-reit/how-form-reit#:~:text=Beginning%20with%20its%20second%20taxable,the%205%2F50%20Test). that ")." is part of the url at the end]. If enough large investors pull their cash out of CCI stock and into something that guarantees a better ROIC, then CCI would lose REIT status. That would mean CCI would need to pay federal taxes. Do you think that CCI stock would perform well if they lost REIT status, dividends, and earnings went down due to having to pay federal taxes? I'll be a little more nuanced in this explanation. What happens if large money investors (Dan Schlanger says our target investors are not retail, but large institutions) move large amounts of cash out of CCI stock and into other securities when the market crashes?
For instance Dr. Burry from the Big Short predicts SPX to lose over half its value (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-111530747.html)? This means the S&P 500 would be a way safer bet to the large money investors than holding CCI stock would be, especially if they fear CCI losing REIT status, dividends, etc. So, I would say nothing is guaranteed in life, including stock prices. Why don’t you compare YTD for CCI (-13.14%) to SPX (-14.44%), GME (-12.72%), SBA (-11.87), AMT (-5.36), DJIA (-10.85%), or anything with that fits your narrative of CCI doing better?
As far as how the company is run, here is some history. CC used to be a real estate company, hence the REIT status. Through the digital transformation initiatives, one could argue that CC is trying to go from being a real estate company to a tech company. We are basically watering down our successful towers business model with less profitable businesses like fiber and small cells. Imagine you have a 1/4 pound beef patty on a burger and you want more meat content. Well, you can add all the veggies in the world on the burger and you do not end up with any more meat. The veggies watered down the overall meaty content of the burger. That is what is going to happen to the revenue over the next couple years. CCI could fire everyone and run on the rental revenue for decades. The math works out to where the new business lines (fiber, sc) can survive on the recurring rental revenue for a few years. Remember this now, we took out over a billion in loans when the rates dropped at the start of COVID. Why would we want cash on hand? We wanted cash on hand because we knew that we were using too much of the monthly tower income. There is a narrow path forward that gets narrower with each poor financial decision the EMT makes.
I can do this all day and still get paid.