Thread regarding Ford layoffs

The impending recession

Lawler said Ford is taking the possibility of a U.S. recession seriously and that the company has modeled several possible scenarios for a downturn.
Still, Ford and the broader auto industry are in a different position today than in past recessions, when the company typically held high inventories and increased discounts that eroded margins, Lawler said.
“We don’t have that today,” Lawler said. “We’re very lean on inventories. We have an order bank that’s significant at over 300,000 units. ... As an industry and as a company, we’re heading into this [possible recession] in a much different position than we’ve ever been in before.”

Those who lived through the 2008 recession, do you think this one could be much worse than the past recession at Ford?

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Post ID: @OP+1hfDXF8f

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...and Mach E is no longer profitable due to commodity costs.

As we all know - this means more headcount reductions - especially ICE folks - near future cycle plans do not contain any ICE programs.

Post ID: @dla+1hfDXF8f

Disagree with anyone that is saying Ford wants to become Tesla. That is not true at all. While we can and will become fully EV like Tesla, it does not stop there. We can surpass Tesla with additional revenue streams with connected data and mobility. They do not have the mobility infrastructure and vision that we have been building for the past few years.

We are sustainable and positioned as strong as any OEM right now for the future.

Post ID: @xnz+1hfDXF8f

Another difference is the rising interest rates and the huge debt burden F has. Very different carrying costs on the debt, especially given F debt is junk status.

Post ID: @gss+1hfDXF8f

Lots of things in play here.

First, during the next recession (this year or whenever), lots of 30+ year employees will retire.
Couple that with the job market (which while it will cool, will not be as bad as past job markets due to the number of people that no longer want to work), and Ford will not be in a position to cut very many positions at all.
As Lawler, says, our inventory is almost nil. So car sales will not be hit as hard as in past recessions. Further, the average vehicle is now almost 13 years old, so there is a lot of pent up demand. Vehicles still wear out and are no longer worth repairing, or totaled in car accidents. Replacements have to come from somewhere and the used car inventory is already tight.

The big question will be whether not Ford sells its ICE division off and tries to be fully EV like Tesla. I think that is what the split is about. Botox boy wants to be Elon. He stays awake at night trying to figure out how to be Elon. Elon lives rent free in his head! If Ford does sell their ICE business, goes all EV, there will be no Ford in 5-10 years.

Recession or not, this company is screwed. Get out while you can.

Post ID: @ivg+1hfDXF8f

In terms of how many people will be laid off?

During SRD the company rejuvenated, hired in the right fields and laid off plenty. They are "prepared" because they did the layoffs earlier. I remember Bill saying that when the Pandemic started.
During the Recession they laid off left and right and people could no longer think straight. Team members had to compete against each other to stay in and it ruined team behavior in those people, like damaged goods.
Today, and in this economy, people are getting loans too easily to buy cars they actually should not be allowed to "afford". The profit margins are high on those higher-end vehicles. On top of that is the "parts shortage" that keeps demand low. "What a bummer!". EBIT margins are pretty good right now and the company didn't make the mistake to let their employees participate in the success.

Anyway... as long as people get their undeserved luxury SUV-loans and keep buying overpriced vehicles it should be fine. Then again, the interest rates are going up, there is likely a huge bubble, people are low on cash due to inflation (rent, energy up 40% or so?). So who knows? Safest bet is, if your vehicle program/feature is still in place (if you're PD) then they still need you.

Add to that however, the CEO saying repeatedly "we need the right talent" which you might not be... so yeah. Make sure you can be without a job for a half year. If you can weather that you can tell yourself "whatever". Look up how much Cobra costs and what your budget would be if you lived self-efficient. That times 6. And you have a good idea.

Post ID: @znl+1hfDXF8f

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