Disappointing production news in the 1Q23 earnings report. It has fallen and we are back under 3 million BOEPD. Terrible. Apparently Permian growth it not what was hoped. Royalty production is now forecast to be flat all year. Gads.
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@7nwh: "We can still make this happen if we can find forward thinking people who put company over glamor first."
Unfortunately, that's not going to happen. MW's Chevron, now nearly a decade entrenched, has trained all current management to be concerned with their careers first, short-term gains, bonuses, options, and which trendy social media initiative to attach themselves to. Help could come from external hires, but again, MW's track record is he only hires snake-oil salespersons like RM who promise to turn us into a "most-admired" company, when in reality our reputation is tanking.
The good Permian assets are really good and we do have a healthy position. It's just not enough for the sustained peaks production we said we could do. I clearly remember a previous Permian Asset Manager saying we needed to do a deal to consolidate our good areas and shed the future stranded acreage to fund. GM, UPO and longer term BU folks at the time were entrenched with the early story and power plays rather than reality. That manager took voluntary and once again we lost a person with vision. We can still make this happen if we can find forward thinking people who put company over glamor first.
Hoping for a 'digital solution' (especially in the hands of our half-baked digital 'scholars') to replace honest-to-goodness experience and calculated risk-taking is just a pipe dream.
Surprised to find out DJ acreage has higher ROI than Permian acreage? Probably says a lot about the actual quality of Permian prospects.
If you take out the Noble barrels, we have only added 50,000 BOEPD in the Permian since 2020. 15% of what we forecast. Gosh.
Gee. Go figure. CVX does not have a viable exploration program and then it cannot maintain production. Who would have thought this could happen? Duh. I don't know about you, but I sold my stock. It is just becoming increasingly difficult for companies to actually replace reserves, i.e. not pencil whipping them up. Ergo, production eventually has to goes down. Who cares about Hi-Pots and promotions when your company is entering a slow, relentless, downward profit spiral due to diminished production. The only way out is to FIND and PRODUCE economic hydrocarbons. Good luck.
Three years down the road and we barely added 1/3 of the promised production.
In 2019 (March investor day) we promised shareholders we would deliver 900,000 BOEPD from the Permian by 2023.
Jay J screeched "Based on continued performance improvements, we're raising our guidance in the Permian. We're projecting Permian unconventional production to reach over 600,000 barrels a day by the end of 2020 and over 900,000 barrels a day by the end of 2023. "
This promise was unlike all the upstream MCP promises we had made and failed to deliver on time or cost (Gorgon, Wheatstone, TCO, etc etc) - we could control and deliver this one. It was a Promise.
Well, as of today we are around 700,000 and have revised the promise is down to 800,000 or less by year end. That includes almost 50,000 BOEPD added by Noble not in the 2019 forecast!
Another failure which erodes market confidence in our promises. We always seem to fall short. Of course, there will be a great list of excuses as to why we are a day late and a barrel short.
I'm just happy to see us reach 3 million barrels per day. We were stuck around 2.5-2.6 for at least a decade. It was always forecast to rocket upward imminently but never seemed to.
Clearly almost all people commenting here could have been CEO’s. You guys just chose not to. All of you hold the truth and know exactly how to run the company.
Our production peaked at the end of 2020 and has been slowly declining. We will regret the lack of CAPEX investment in the next few years.
If you haven’t heard yet, we are winning in ANY environment!
Huh, does that mean we should not be booking permian assets for 30 years reserves? If that is true, we need to have a quick distraction.
The Permian was worth a shot as we don’t have a lot else. LNG has terrible economics. GOM has bungled projects. Africa is declining. TCO is our only hope.
@1asx, @1uoc, @1igi, all true. Chevron management has never taken well to realists and pragmatists who see things as they are, they prefer high-pots and management wannabes who are always touting P90 numbers as "most likely". MW in particular fell victim to the Permian siren's song (or more correctly, snake oil salespersons) that the Permian was a panacea for everything wrong with Chevron reserves replacement. For almost two decades now the dirty secret the Reserves people have uncovered is that Chevron properties produce out alarmingly closer to P10 numbers than even P50 numbers. @1lea, absolutely correct. Look at Chevron's history since the 80's. An acquisition to prop up reserves every 8-10 years. Noble was the most recent. Look for another in about 5 years when Permian really starts to fade. Irony? It'll probably be more Permian properties.
There were people that worked the Permian 5 years ago that warned the acreage portion was not as advertised and we needed more. Those people voluntarily took packages after having there insights ridiculed and preferring not to continue the spin. We should have done more to keep this talent and now are paying the price.
The Permian is not panning out as we had hoped. What's next?
This was started many years ago. Lost a lot of actual talent. Lost or geologist who actually found oil and new projects 10-15 years ago. Lost a lot of production ops people 5 years ago. But don’t worry we have power point engineers now who we sent to MIT who can make it digital. We are becoming like imBev in this company.
Another Acquisition?
So that means layoffs? If not then who cares?
I might be a little old school here, but seems like you might need to actually drill wells to produce oil and gas, not just talk about it in endless asset class pontification marathons.