Why An Intel Turnaround Seems Unlikely

SeekingAlpha.com. Aug. 12, 2024 9:57 AM ET

After an active return of almost +31% on my previous 'Sell' view on Intel, I am maintaining my bearish stance post Q2 FY24 results.

Intel investors face a potential long-term FCF bleed, as the company is not expected to be FCF positive for the next 4 years.

I believe investors should skip management's turnaround and transformation pitch and instead focus on evaluating the results.

Notwithstanding the recent guidance shockers, I believe proactive and transparent communication is lacking since the company did not issue a timely profit warning to inform of a drastic EPS downgrade.

Valuations seem to bake in a bit of an undeserved semi + AI-theme in my view, as the stock still trades above its long-term average multiple. The technicals suggest a multi-year lag vs the S&P 500 going ahead.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4713697-intel-why-a-turnaround-seems-unlikely

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16 replies (most recent on top)

Burn $1B/Qtr? Sounds like the US government

White knight?! BA Ha hahaha Ha.., the company has negative cash flow each qtr of $1B... So dream on.

White knights have other better things to do than save Intel self proclaimed influentials. And if anyone were actually that rich, I wouldn’t want to be near Intel. Who would so get over yourselves bottom dwellers.

From the article - this is an eternity in the high tech industry. If you are NOT looking for a job...you might want to start today.

Intel investors face a potential long-term FCF bleed, as the company is not expected to be FCF positive for the next 4 years.

AMD has a bonkers growth trajectory.
They will out-earn Intel next quarter in data center. Their client revenue was up 49% last quarter - what does that tell you about market share if Intel sh!t the bed with their revenues?

The market prices FUTURE earnings. Not past earnings.

All these stock prophecy articles are clickbait for id--ts written by GenAI, you can literally find opposite opinions telling you to "hold" or "buy" right before the crash.

Because no one is laid off yet

Intel has tremendous value. It's just being locked up by a very stupid ELT and a useless Board.

@bji

AMD today is worth about 3X of Intel. Assuming you sell TMG, Intel Labs, and what have you on WeirdStuff.com, what remains of Intel can still beat AMD.

Besides, as in business, someone will find the fabs useful. Once they have to fight for their own existence, they will streamline and be competitive. This will never happen under Intel.

What are the value of fabs that are no longer competitive by the time they produce acceptable yields?

Bake that into your valuation.

TSMC isn’t waiting around for Intel to get 18A up and running.

This article assumes that Intel will not split. If it does, the combined stock value would far exceed the current levels.

C'mon now. Isn't there some White Knight who'll come in, take a large stake, become an activist investor and be an agent for change?

Sure there is.

But Elon Musk would cut 80%, not 15%.

Intel C/S will fall below $15/sh and further down > $10-$15 range throughout Qtrs 2024-2026 ! Where's my EUV Ai pie at Pat ? Time is now fire legacy boomer MBAs and PHDs off now and hire only tested proven RnD folks that close loop experiment until proven failures are eliminated ! If teams can't get along, remove them. and reorg only with hungry scientist and engineers that can design and build innovative chips !
x86 Xeon hi on days are over ELTs ! Get off the party couch and move away from our company ! Board needs to go today !

Slow death spiral crash landing but dragged on over years

C'mon now. Isn't there some White Knight who'll come in, take a large stake, become an activist investor and be an agent for change?

18A = $18 a share

No volumes, no money.

Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Why An Intel Turnaround Seems Unlikely

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