Thread regarding ExxonMobil Corp. layoffs

Math - for those who aren’t good at it (most of you)

Here is simple math, because of new assessment system.

15% are NI every year. If you are doing well, you get promoted. In new assessment class,15% is still NI. In essence, for mathematical purposes, we can assume you have 15% chance of getting into NI every year (Thank you new system, )

Alternatively speaking - you have 85% chance of not being NI.

Being not NI two years in a row = 0.85*0.85= 72%
Three years = 0.85^3 =62%

Five years = 44%. That is you have GREATER than 50% chance of being NI

10 years it’s 80%

What does that mean? By no means I suggest you to leave. This is the norm in any industry. Whether you do BTC or not. The folks in Exxon seems to be living in a different world, they act and by no means this is a compliment, like folks working in DMV or DoD. This is not a government job. It’s a private job. These odds are what every single American lives by.
Know your odds, so that you plan your expenditures better.

20 years ? Sure 4 % .. that’s right your odds of making 20 years in company without being NI is 4 %. Execs become NI, > 50 age become NI. It’s not because of your age, it’s just law of probabilities.
You are getting promoted to your most potential. You should be thankful. Would you rather be 50+ Oustanding at CL 25 or NI at 29. Do the math on money you make, answer is obvious. Stop being bitter because you are NI. You are NI because you reached your potential or surpassed it. Embrace it.

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| 1561 views | | 11 replies (last June 29)
Post ID: @OP+1tfRS330

11 replies (most recent on top)

Regardless of the math and statistical approach, how many of you really think you can outlast 95% of your peers until 2030 when the campus will be downsized to select few overseeing BTC.

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Post ID: @1nrq+1tfRS330

Math obviously fatally flawed. Real question is whether Exxon intends to allow most good people to make it to retirement or are they really just scheming to use people up and discard them mid career when they start to become expensive? Are we becoming like a consultancy or a law firm where young people completely spend themselves competing for an elusive partnership, only to realize midcareer that it’s not going to happen for most?

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Post ID: @1glu+1tfRS330

Keep it simple, bro. If you become the ultimate yes man, you can yes your way into the CEO role in 10 years

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Post ID: @uku+1tfRS330

You have 100% chance of being NI'd if you don't su-k your manager's di-k

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Post ID: @jtq+1tfRS330

I assume that OP is one of Exxon’s world-class engineers, seemingly with a lot of extra time on his hands - because he probably hasn’t had to engineer anything in over a decade.

OP also seems to have trouble making the distinction between absolute and relative percentages in his calculations.

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Post ID: @etu+1tfRS330

So if I play Michael Jordan 1 on 1 in a game of basketball, I have a 50% chance of winning?? Sweet!

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Post ID: @jnk+1tfRS330

Op sorry you got ranked NI… probably not your 1st time

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Post ID: @eme+1tfRS330

Your math is flawed as it neglects your own ability to influence your own performance.

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Post ID: @gnq+1tfRS330

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