Thread regarding ConocoPhillips layoffs

$10/bbl tax on oil - Obama proposal

"WASHINGTON — President Obama will propose a $10-a-barrel oil tax to fund an ambitious new transportation spending plan, White House officials said Thursday ... The new oil tax would be phased in over five years, and would apply to both domestic and imported oil. It's different from a gas tax in that it will be paid for by the oil companies, not directly by consumers, and would also apply to jet and train fuel."

Economics: The tax is applied to domestic and foreign produced oil and refined products. The tax is paid by producers and foreign refiners but is an indirect tax on the US consumer (both retail and corporate).

Politics: Republicans oppose but we will have an election in November 2016 so this is not as dead on arrival as stated. Hillary has taken the majority of Obama's policies and we know Bernie will adopt this. Here are the current projections for the election:

  • President: Hillary 294, Trump 244

  • House: Republicans 244, Democrats 191

  • Senate: Republicans 52, Democrats 46

SOURCE: http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

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Post ID: @OP+FNPUZZK

7 replies (most recent on top)

With timing like this, you'd think Obama was running COP...decision making at its worst.

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Post ID: @2uwc+FNPUZZK

This tax has no more impact on domestic as foreign oil producers, it's phased over five years and simply reduces US demand for oil and oil products while paying for transportation infastructure. Compared to all the other things happening in the global oil industry it's not that important.

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Post ID: @dul+FNPUZZK

Correction, if US producers are not taxed on exports only US demand for oil and refined products is reduced - the tax is not born by the producer only the US consumer.

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Post ID: @qpp+FNPUZZK

What is the impact of the tax?

  • falls equally on domestic and foreign producers for oil consumed in the US, and makes US oil $10/bbl more expensive vs. foreign producers when sold overseas

  • may not impact exports of refined products (unclear)

  • reduces the demand for oil and oil products in the US

Basically reduces the US demand for oil and oil products while eliminating US exports of oil. Competitiveness of US producers vs. foreign producers unchanged - ensures that US domestic producers have a net negative growth future.

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Post ID: @ntq+FNPUZZK

Is this a popular policy:

  • Most Americans want the federal government to do something about global warming. There is strong approval for corporate tax breaks and but much less support for tax increases

  • Increasing taxes on gasoline so people either drive less, or buy cars that use less gas: Favor - 36%, Oppose - 63%

  • Giving companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water, wind, and solar power: Favor - 80%, Oppose - 19%

... but

  • the open/competitive seats are in regions that would benefit from more transportation infrastructure (Florida, North East and California)

SOURCE: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/01/29/us/global-warming-poll.html?_r=0

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Post ID: @zsk+FNPUZZK

... not as dead on arrival as "advertised" - the democrats are leading in the polls and the race in the House has enough competitive seats for the Democrats to gain control:

Current Seats 247(R) 188(D)

Competitive Seats 23(R) 7(D)

Safe Seats 224(R) 181(D)

Open Seats 27(R) 15(D)

Projected Gains 1(R) 4(D)

Projected Losses 4(R) 1(D)

Projected Change -3(R) +3(D)

Projected Seats 244(R) 191(D)

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Post ID: @syk+FNPUZZK

Since 30 to 40% of a barrel becomes gasoline, that works out to be 60-70 cents a gallon, passed along to the consumer of course. Add to that more state gasoline taxes being considered by state governments since they think consumers can handle another 10-15 cents a gallon state gasoline tax, while gasoline prices are low.

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Post ID: @iuv+FNPUZZK

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