Thread regarding Sears layoffs

OP here...It seemed pretty clear to me. I plugged some figures into my formula and came up with my prediction. My formula is not for sale by the way.

I will also not be answering any more questions about SHLDQ or about other corporations at this time.

Someone had a crystal ball.

To the OP: Since you are apparently the Nostradomus of retail and seem to know exactly what will happen and when, what will happen next?

Do you know what 250 stores are "on the bubble?" Do you have info on Kenmore, etc? When will ch. 7 come? You must know those answers. I bet you're someone on the inside.

*

Do you have a time machine or something? You were correct! How could you have known?

Wow. You seemed to have a pretty darn good take on the situation. Your analysis and prediction that far ahead in time is among the most accurate I've seen. You must be making big bucks somewhere with that ability.

I originally started this thread WAY BACK in March....seems as relevant as ever. Looks like I had a crystal ball over six months ago.

Kenmore and DIEHARD are associated with Sears so I think that really takes away from the value of the names now.

More importantly, the delivery and repair of the appliances seems to be abysmal. Local media, national media, Facebook comment sections, the defunct mysears community, SYW website & more all have lengthy Horror stories of ignored, mishandled and downright destructive repairs and deliveries. The word has gotten out.

It doesn't matter if Diehard or Kenmore have any value. They are just names with a reputation that is tied to them. Selling them off won't save SEARS so it really doen't matter.

And it really doesn't matter what I think about the value of Kenmore or Diehard......very soon I will have more assets in my bank account then SHLD will so the comment about "deserving to be poor and broke" is completely absurd.

Those who don't know about brand recognition is know nothing about marketing. Kenmore, Diehard are American brands that still worth big money. Not as much as before on its heyday but together it worth more than a billion USD today. Those who think it worth nothing you guys deserved to be poor and broke. Sears brand might be tarnished but Kenmore and Diehards are not.

Bumpity bump

@2qawy - Congratulations on your outstanding calculation and foresight! You did way better than all those experts and talking heads in the business media.

Thank you to those who bumped this thread back into relevancy again. I am the person who started this post way back in March. My insights were dead-on and it seems like I pretty much hit the nail on the head (with a Craftsman hammer). I took the figures I had for the situation at SHLD, took into consideration the fact that economics is a social science and can accelerate things, and then used a formula I came up with in college to basically number the days left til the whole thing would hit a derailment point..... October 1 is the date I came up with.

I'm still not a troll and still not trying to create panic.....and I'm still not the grouchy old guy who used to scrub toilets...lol. I have never owned SHLD stock and never intend to own SHLD stock, but ironically I could take the change in wallet and buy a few shares if I chose to at the current price.

For those employed at SHLD I would advise you to get out now if you have any other viable option for employment. If you want to be on the roller coaster and hang around for some pay during the liquidation phase of a historical behemoth as it dies then be my guest.

The OP here is looking more correct all the time. It's amazing they said October 1 would be a critical day to watch over six months ago!

You are like Nostrodamus in your prediction. I dont think it will happen on Oct 1 but within a few months or even weeks of that date is spot on. Working at HE in the C suite I can say the end is nearer than you can imagine.

bump

Will this prediction for October 1 be true?

Bump. Maybe this person was onto something way back in march

@2lye-- all financials can be found on the SEC website along with every other publically traded company

I wish I could see their balance sheet. I would be interested to know what the disparity of their liabilities to owner's equity is in their assets.

@2yiz - Thank you for your learned and thought provoking insights. Please keep us informed of your observations and opinions as events at SHLD progress.

Oh, I definitely am an economist and financially entrenched person who graduated with honors from an esteemed four year university that has the best econ department in the US of my discipline. What makes you think I don't work at a Sears or Kmart? Maybe I do.... Yes, I did bring up highlights and terminology that other websites are using. I did that on purpose so if anyone else chose to look more for themselves they find some of the same road markers.

I am not a short seller..... I always go long on stock purchases. Real estate or other tangible property is the stuff to flip quick in my opinion. I merely tried to put two things together. There are many posts that talk about how bad things are and many posts that give an end date, but no reason why. I brought the two together......I clearly stated a date and provided some insights on why I believe that.

I am actually a fan of Sears and Kmart. I have been cheering and hoping that everything will some how turn around and be alright. Unfortunately some people somehow have the opinion that things aren't that bad..... Sears and Kmart are iconic institutions and too big to fail... maybe Eddie really does have a brilliant plan that others don't see.... maybe things will be OK.

Many people see the PONR (point of no return) as where we are right now or maybe Q4 of 2017. In my analysis the actual PONR happened the day that Craftsman was sold for 1/3 of what it's value had been a few years before and the company did not show a profit at the end of that quarter. If a profit could have been shown and a controlled closure of EBITDA negative stores was done over the next quarter then perhaps (although unlikely) a profitable "core" might have been salvaged. Perhaps that could have at least stabilized the ship for a handful of years.

Craftsman was the one card in the hand that could have kept SHLD in the game, but they played the hand wrong and Sears' all in bet on three of kind got beat by a royal straight flush. The day they sold Craftsman was the day I knew it was pretty much all over.....

@Sxs9kGW-mvn Very interesting point so if they would of sold Craftsman even earlier could of made around 3 billion dollars that would of bought the company way more time.

Also to all the haters hating on OP he was just putting his opinion when he thinks the company might go under. The company is in a huge pile of debt stores keep closing its matter of time when Eddie won't lend Sears a dime because his loans won't be protected.

OP you are hilarious! An “economist” sure and I’m Donald Trump.

Why don’t you say, “I came from the yahoo group” or seeking alpha, and I’m here to f$ck with u lowly sears employees?

Keep shorting or whatever it is you do but please, leave us alone. This website is for employees not daytraders.

Ps shorting sp 500 would pay better thN shorting sears right now.

Diehard is going to quickly become too engrained into Sears Auto to be able to be sold cleanly. With Auto Centers being called Diehard stores and the fact that KCD charges SHLD such a high % for using the Diehard name, that its probably a better vehicle for pulling money out than it is to sell outright.

As far as Kenmore, is there anyone still alive that feels Kenmore is a superior brand? Give me something by Samsung, LG or Whirlpool... and not add the Kenmore tag.

Americans are so much more accepting of foreign brands now, Kenmore doesn't really have a place.

@oxy

You have to remember who bought it though. It was Black and Decker.

They have pretty much bought out almost half of the name brand tool makers in America. Stanley, Bostitch, Craftsman, Dewalt, Irwin, and plenty more. Once again, this was bought only for the name, they have plenty of subcompanies making the exact same stuff.

Sears also sold off Craftsman way too late. It was worth something around $3 billion only 3 years ago, I believe it was sold for $900m? If I was the seller, I would not have dubbed this 'win'.

I didn't think any intelligent company would pay a premium for the house brands of a dying retailer. Then SHC was able to sell Craftsman for nearly a $billion. Strange things do happen. Not that it will matter in the long term. They will just burn the proceeds keeping these dying stores alive awhile longer.

Exactly....all Kenmore and Diehard are is a name. Diehard is not a manufacturer somewhere that has a big building in which they build batteries and battery chargers. Kenmore is not a huge factory somewhere that manufactures their own products. They are just names slapped on products from Johnson Contols, Whirlpool, LG, or whomever. The property that would go along with buying the Diehard or Kenmore brand is literally nothing other than the name.....instead of paying millions for those names you'd be better off having Johnson Controls or Whirlpool just slap a name of your choosing on the product they are building for you. You could call your battery NeverFail or your refrigerator NewDay and have the same product as Kenmore without having to pay a premium for the use of the name.

@qgx

Either this post is the definition of sarcasm or else you may want to have the Dr check you out for signs of a stroke.

Both diehard and Kenmore are nothing but names. Simple products that have been branded to Sears name. Nothing more, nothing less. If you really think a name is worth the big bucks, when the same products are made under a different alias, then I need some of the stuff you're smoking. The only reason anybody would buy these names would be to take them off of the market.

BTW.....Kenmore and Diehard have no value left of consequence. If someone is extremely interested in them they would have bought them by now. If someone still has low to moderate interest then they would be best to wait until the bitter end when they can buy the name for almost nothing. Craftsman might have been one thing...but Kenmore and Diehard are different. Someone can buy the Diehard name after bankruptcy for almost nothing in a few months and slap it on any random battery they want.

Lol...I am not a troll in a basement and I am not the bitter old guy that used to scrub toilets. I have a degree in economics and finace. I was simply putting a date out there with some highlights to back up the date provided. Yes some could be called regurgitation to an extent, but bottom line is that I feel certain that the end of SHLD is closer than some think and I put my theory out there. If someone thinks that sales have bottomed out and are rebounding on the way to a revival of some sort then they are mistaken. The can cannot be kicked down the road any further...not only is the road at an end....the friggin can itself has disintegrated to the point that even if the road continued the can is no longer in existence.

OP sounds like the old guy that used to scrub the toilets at our sears until he got caught peeking in one of the stalls.

The problem with this board is we have all these people who are sitting in moms basement trolling and telling us “when the company will close”. I have read this identical post for 7 years now, we all have.

Enough. Your reasoning doesn’t even make sense “no assets left to sell”... diehard, kenmore, there are more. I could go on and on.

Bottom line is our sales have bottomed and are going up. Finally. In large part thanks to online sales but they are going UP.

We made a modest profit.

We will make it.

Work hard, do your job. Remember each motioning u have a choice, vote with your feet, or look in the mirror, smile, and say “I get to work at at Sears today!”

It’s the best godd*mn job in the world.

Erd, why in the world would you think the op is Eddie when he is clearly stating things are over? Eddie isn't that honest.

Profit was not a cash profit. It was only a paper profit. Which means it was just a tax break to offset loses. They made no more money, they have no more cash in the bank to pay bills, they have not improved the sales decline and customers leaving. There has really been no change.

Just look around your store and tell me how many products you have that are from vendors you have ever heard of and how many products are out of stock or not avaliable.

The so called profit is just smoke and mirrors to make you work harder thinking that the company is doing better.

If they have been closing stores that are EBITDA positive (some as much as +3) then I think the time for just closing unprofitable stores and saving a core group has passed. Suppliers are extremely nervous..... The available cash to secure product from vendors is almost gone. I would be very surprised if there will be even cash available here in a few months to get Fall products on the way to the stores let alone get stocked up for Winter and the end of year holiday season. I'm sure toy suppliers would rather sell overstock at a discount on Amazon than risk trying to sell it through SHLD.

If Walmart and other highly profitable retailers are closing some of their stores to reduce their exposure in today's world then that tells you how far gone SHLD is.... pretty much bled out and dead even though the brain might have some consciousness left.

Surely the profit in the fourth quarter will help. I'm thinking suppliers will be a lot less nervous, they've closed many of the unprofitable locations, and without Toys R Us they have more clout with suppliers desperate to get toys onto shelves.

• Another regurgitation of what everyone already knows - you could find nothing better to do on a Thursday afternoon

Take the boat out for a cruise Eddie 😝 ⛵

Go pedal around the island 🚲