Thread regarding GlobalFoundries layoffs

The numbers just don't work

What it looks like to most of the semiconductor world is that 2018 is "peak revenue" year for Fab8. It will never, ever generate as much revenue as it does this year. With no new technology on the horizon, and the key 14LPP customer moving to TSMC 7nm, the ASPs and wafer numbers will decrease from this point forward. You can cry "derivatives" but what is even defined yet? Isn't the general consensus that Fab8 needs to capture something like 25-30% of the derivatives over the next few years even to keep the doors open. That's a big order and the whole idea of the differentiated products is more products from more customers and the management at Fab8 has no idea how to handle that, the main focus has been on 2 1/2 customers (AMD, Qualcomm and IBM 14HP which is 1/2 done in Malta).

My hope is something is able to work out for all my colleagues that are still there, I just don't see it, the numbers don't work. The company's already set itself up to show that if something is too hard or doesn't work out quick enough, they will abandon the project. So who's going to sign on for any of the early derivative flows given Fab8's history of throwing the towel? AMD has gotten screwed twice with 20nm and 7nm, putting in resources, product designs, etc only for the project to be abandoned. The best outcome is that some other company buys Fab8 and it is repurposed (unless it is Samsung and they can keep running 14LPP).

Reposted this from @WdD53bY-5grj for being on point

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Post ID: @Wi0abtv

2 replies (most recent on top)

No other semiconductor company is going to buy the Malta fab. I'm sure it has been for sale for quite a while. It's no secret the investors want it gone. If anyone stepped up and gave them even a fire-sale offer for the fab, Mubadala would take it in the blink of an eye. No one wants this fab. IBM paid GF over a billion dollars to rid themselves of the S&T division, especially the management. Mubadala was naive, and they got played by the IBM/GF SLT. Those days are over, and the SLT is hanging on as long as they can, as their days in the semiconductor industry are numbered. Do you think they haven't been applying for jobs as well? There is a reason all the management is still in place at Malta. No one else wants them.

Post ID: @Wi0abtv-1gnu

You got it right there. 2018 is the peak. Things can only get worse moving forward, maybe even a significant downturn for the broader economy.

The only reason why GF got the AMD & Qualcomm orders in the first place was because 14nm was licensed from Samsung. No real customer in the industry has any confidence in GF developed processes. Even in volume manufacturing , sc-ap rates , average Yields and reliability are NOWHERE near acceptable standards.

Only way out is to split the company into parts which other major players can buy. At least you can keep some jobs.

Post ID: @Wi0abtv-ydw

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