Thread regarding Sears layoffs

A Go Forward Scenario

Ok, I'm pulling this purely out of my posterior, but I'm trying to fit the puzzle pieces in a way that tries to make sense of what Eddie's doing not look like complete brain damage and instead look like a smart move that doesn't make the banks look like complete fools getting s---ered again and again.

Amazons' Jeff Bezos bought Whole Foods a few years back right? And then basically left it alone with a few tweaks, while basically just watching it while learning the grocery business. Supposedly big things are in store this year.

Amazon also has been doing things with Kenmore and Sears Auto, indicating that he has ideas about expanding into the tire and appliances space. We know Amazon likes to perfect things by starting small, and then expanding once they have things figured out. If Amazon spends $5B on Sears, that's completely chump change to Amazon. A few billion and a few years to learn the business is nothing for Amazon.

So Eddie buys out Sears. Amazon gets Kenmore/Diehard, some Auto and appliance knowledge, Sears Home Services, learns the ropes, and once Amazon gets the know how they want, they eventually expand and conquer the world as Amazon knows how. They definitely don't want the inefficient morass that only Eddie can create. They want the appliances, auto, the Kenmore brand, and the warranty and intellectual property that makes it happen.

That's how all this makes sense. Again, complete pure conjecture, but it's how I make it all fit together in my head.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy

6 replies (most recent on top)

When you do what Sears did and now Target is doing and borrow money to fund repurchases, it isn’t “increasing value” except for short term holders of the stock. In any case, I think that the losses of the past 3-5 years have wiped out any potential gains multiple times over. Sooner rather than later Eddie is going to run out of financial maneuvers he can use to keep Sears solvent. The stock issue is about to be mooted in any case, as the current SHLDQ shares are about to be cancelled regardless of what happens, and if Eddie wins the company will be privately held by ESL via Transform Holdco. The only value left is in the 11bil in NOLs racked up under Eddie. Once those go, it’s all over.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-odf

Txo and others, that money wasn’t spent it was returned to shareholders in spinoffs (lands end etc) and special dividends and share repurchases.

Smthe new sears will be a powerhouse, there’s a ton of value still there to mine.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-uio

@X50IMiy-kng

@X50IMiy-txo

You guys get it. Petition guy and posterior boy don't. Thanks for your analysis.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-afh

Amazon doesn't want SEARS. Whole Foods is falling apart since Amazon bought it out (see the Whole Foods section of this website). People working at Whole Foods are not happy and former loyal WFM customers are not happy. Many would say that the whole Amazon/WFM venture has been a failure thus far.

If Amazon wants to sell appliances then they could establish relationships with many different appliance manufacturers. If Amazon wants to sell tires then they can establish relationships with several different tire companies. The reason Amazon experimented with Kenmore and the tire deal with Sears is because it really didn't cost them anything and Sears was desperate. It was free retail market analysis. Anyone reading anything into more than that is foolish IMO.

And again why do some people think that somehow SEARS will continue to "function" until 2020 sometime? There is no way that cash will exist that long for SEARS to be able to open day after day with the cash burn they have.

The only reason stores are open today and employees have been getting paid is because loans have been taken out to simply limp along this far. Certainly no one would be foolish enough to continue giving SHLD quarter billion dollar loans every other month just to keep it open.

Even if Eddie buys the whole thing and spends billions upon billions of additional dollars to completely refurbish every single store, revamp the brand entirely, and invest in phenomenonal website infrastructure it will NEVER happen.

People.....back in 2010 SHLD had an excess of $12 billion cash on hand in the bank. Less than 9 years later all of that $12 billion is not only gone, but money made from selling assets is gone, several billion dollar loans have also burned been burned through, AND the compay is billions of dollars in dept on top of that. When the media says "SEARS has lost $12 billion dollars since their last profitable year of 2010" that is not accurate. SHLD has probably actually lost at least $20 billion when you take everything into consideration.

Simply put there is no planet, galaxy, universe, or dimension that exists in which the current incarnation of SHLD can continue to exist. Even if Eddie had $20 billion to play with I think he'd be out of money again in another 8 or 9 years.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-txo

Hence my petition below a few days ago for Amazon to buy Sears! (Scroll down)

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-zxy

Eddie will figure out some way to muddle through 18 months or two years of continuing operations, (with more closings) before finally privately liquidating whatever is left by that point. Retail will probably be the last to go, no later than summer 2020. After that, who knows? This whole thing was supposed to have been finished and closed down by ~2010, but then the recession intervened and Eddie got stuck running a retailer. The real estate is largely worthless now, so beyond of the time to utilize the 11 bil in NOLs, I see no possibility of continued existence for Sears.

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Post ID: @X50IMiy-kng

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