In the news this morning, Red Lobster has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The typical path for a business in Chapter 11 starts by suffering years of continuous losses in core parts of the business under a succession of CEOs. After the BK filing, the business attempts to get on its feet again by selling off operations, terminating long-term debt obligations and shrinking its overall financial footprint so that it can survive.
Remember that this is really an IBM story and not a story about Red Lobster. IBM has been following in the footsteps of Red Lobster, even if it hasn't filed official paperwork with the court. A succession of CEOs and years of losses in its core lines of business have been interspersed with selling off of operations and regular large-scale dismissals of employees. This is the path followed by any business in Chapter 11.
So what comes next? A business that cannot survive after Chapter 11 either finds a savior (someone to buy it), or ends up in Chapter 7 (complete and total liquidation). I've held for a long time that IBM's fate will eventually be in the hands of the US government. The technology portfolio is too large, too advanced and too entrenched in our society to be left in just anyone's hands, and despite IBM's ongoing efforts there are still a lot of employee benefit obligations. At some point, the USG will either make decisions for IBM (overruling its management at times), or it will dictate if, when and how IBM is to be broken up. IBM's fate will thus be left in the domain of government bureaucrats and politicians.