Let’s take a look at Schwab’s $10 billion revenue breakout for 2019:
- 60% net interest income
- 30% asset management
- 6% trade commissions
- 4% other, including payment for order flow
- The Fed took rates to zero. NII isn’t going to zero, because you can still get yield, but it’s been maybe halved. But, with more clients going to cash, you get some uplift as the yield Schwab earns on cash is greater than on managed or passive products.
- The market crash means lower asset values to generate yield from. But the move to client cash is positive for Schwab.
- Not zero, but largely so.
- Payment for order flow is up because of market volatility.
Okay, so full year revenue is screwed. Maybe down 30-40%.
Let’s look at Schwab’s $6 billion in costs:
- 20% is non-negotiable (rent, D&A, regulatory fees)
- 20% is negotiable non-headcount (professional services, marketing, communications)
- 60% is headcount related
My two cents.
Anything in the B. category above gets heavily reviewed and cut.
For the C. category,
Client facing roles should be okay, as long as you’re not in a non-core team. If you’re an FC or in the call center, you’re safe. If not, you’re as risk.
Non-client facing roles should be worried. There is still a lot of bloat and paper pushers who don’t add much value.
My advice is, assume you will be laid off. Start preparing your resume and get into recruiting mode. It’s a tough job market now, but at least you’ll be prepared if the worst happens.
Don’t assume the severance plan will stay the same, as they can change it any moment.