2021
Pat rejoins Intel and the stock is $60, 3x higher than today. He outlines his plan to restore Intel to its former glory with 5N4Y. Intel headcount increases 10K during this year. Pat believes that the semiconductor demand situation is the “new normal” as we have had pandemic related capacity constraints.
2022
The PC market craters due to the pandemic artificial high demand coming back down to reality. The pandemic simply pulled demand forward which results in a multi year overhang as people over-ordered. Pat increases headcount by another 10K. Invests like a madman into foundry which is quite d-mb as there will be an overcapacity glut. He then says, with a straight face, that “this is the bottom”.
2023
The PC market has a tepid recovery and Intel stock rallies. Pat still spends like a madman with negative 7 billion in operating profit for IFS. He claims that Intel has landed a “whale” customer and we just need to wait until 2024 to reveal the name. We already know at this time that Qualcomm abandoned its relations with IFS. Intel has job cuts. Intel taps government and private equity to fund its ridiculous 5N4Y bridge to nowhere. Intel cuts the dividend as free cash flow is dangerously negative.
2024
Well, you know what happened…
Intel ran out of time and has nothing to show for 5N4Y
Through the years, Intel has made many profit and revenue forecasts which have disappointed.
Intel has had execution issues related to failing CPUs and a busted Meteor Lake launch.
Intel missed the AI megatrend and only offers half baked solutions with no meaningful revenues.
Intel invested heavily in ARC (under Pat) and failed miserably.
Pat has no idea what he’s doing.
He’s in over his head.
Intel is not the company he thinks it is in his head.
He refuses to accept reality.