This is nerve wrecking, I've seen bad times but this time there something really crazy about the downturn. I hope we are close to the bottom.
10 replies (most recent on top)
1dj - There are several competing theories as to what's going on. Here're those I subscribe to: Russia/Iran were to build a nat gas p/l from Iran to Europe (would transit Syria and Turkey, oddly enough), then the Saudis/U.S. decided THEY would construct a p/l to take Qatar nat gas to Europe (would also transit Syria, but then, under-sea to Europe). Russia "may" have jumped in, about then, under pretense to support Assad, but mostly to protect the future of "their" p/l (it would give Putin even more control over Europe than he already has, and the Russians have long desired control, to whatever extent possible, within the M.E., anyway). Then,a confluence of events: 1) The much heralded (by Obama) Arab Spring (a Saudi lead event intended to displace Shia-led regimes with Sunni), failed, which stymied the Saudis efforts to extend their span of influence; 2) Obamas "cozying up" with the Iranians (release of sanctions, the nuke deal),... M.E. balance of power was threatened. I contend that the Russians, after facing NO resistance from Obama in the Ukraine, Crimea, or anywhere else (the sanctions were for show), decided to drop their military into Syria with little/no risk of U.S. interference (they were right). Not sure if the Saudis knew that was coming or not, but they were certainly "reading the tea leaves" and decided to "fight" Iran and Russia by cratering crude prices. It is, undoubtedly, working. But, with Russia now IN the M.E. and Iran on the ascendant, something is going to have to give. Iran and Russia have already been hard at work stirring up Houhti rebels in Yemen as a force against the Saudis, and events of the last several weeks only add fuel to the fire. Where things are headed seems almost inevitable and I believe we're looking at an upcoming struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the region. There seems little doubt as to which side Russia is on, but U.S. involvement, in my opinion, is cloudy,... the Obama administration's sympathies appear to lean toward Iran at the moment, and given their decidedly weak support of the Saudis (as the Arab Spring unraveled, the Red Line fiasco, especially, and complete capitulation in the face of Russian advancement),... I think the Saudis will have a fight on their hands. Am guessing, too, that Putin sees this as an opportunity to establish Russian presence/control, once and for all, in the most important energy region in the world and am pretty certain that he would welcome higher crude prices. In fact, he will most likely MAKE IT HAPPEN (he will NOT just continue to sit by and watch his primary source of revenue, wither and die). Whether Obama "intended" any/all of this, or not,... I doubt he's clever/capable enough to take that credit,... I tend to believe it's happening because of his innate weakness and incompetence. It's just that,... he's displayed those traits so religiously, so unfailingly,... makes me wonder if it's "conscious incompetence", or "unconscious incompetence"? Whatever,... it looks like it's GAME ON, from here on in.
Me too, my friend. The oil downturn and cheap gas prices has resulted in a 20% uptick in my road trip vacations. Retired and living it.
It ain't that bad! I just paid $1.53 for regular unleaded! This is the kind of downturn I can live with!
Suck it up buttercup.
IM NEVER GONNA BE ABLE TO RETIRE NOW.MY 401 SHOT TO HELL...I PUT ALL MY MONEY IN CHEVRON STOCK,,63 AND BROKE,,
The only countries that will get screwed are Venezuela and Nigeria. I personally think we figured out shale and China is buying less. So, us pumping the hell out of shale and China buying a ton less, that's whats driving the prices down. I may be wrong and my forecasting record is dismal, but I think that we are in this sub 30 range for long long time (we will not stop doing shale and China will not start to buy more)
Rumour has it, America and Saudi have common enemies, Iran (Saudi Arabia), and USA (Russia), and oil is the only (non earth wiping) weapon, to weaken the iranian and the russian economy. Russia is trying to setup shop in the middle east by its involvement in the syrian conflict and such, and iran was trying to do the same, involvement in syria, lebanon, and iraq. Saudi Arabi is predominatly Sunni, and Iran is shiites, pushing for the shiite bullshit in sunni territories........akhhhh religion (or the misunderstanding thereof!)....Anyways, another theory states that by lowering the dinosaur oil, that the small operators in the USA will eventually run out of cash and bankrupt or exit the oil/shale game and sell to the majors at a loss. I would not be surprised if the Saudis release a statement that they will be reducing production (and OPEN actually does reduce their output), that the oil prices will skyrocket in no time. Truth is, these are the only two theories that make sense, think about it, the US and Saudi have been allies forever, and Saudi Arabia would not be running a deficit, if it was not well planned out and agreed upon from the very beginning. Someone will stand to profit from all this (not us the slave for sure). Time will tell......
It is currently @ $30.68. It seems the $20 BBL is right around the corner. Here comes another BS update from the CEHO and another wave of get the f--- out of here, non dick sucking, ass kissing, competent, thinking, slaves.
Why in the world would they want something like this? Seriously? Saudi sites are overflowing with theories that this is the USA's plot to sink their economy as they are running out of money. The country is in turmoil, why in the world would they want to destroy their own economy.
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Crude’s plunge to near $30 a barrel fans worries that it could sink a third of U.S. oil producers
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-plunge-sparks-bankruptcy-concerns-1452560335
This is what the Saudis are aiming for!