There will be no ER, it's as simple as that, and everyone who hopes for it, just gives themself a false hope.
There is simply not a one reason for Cisco to do it, and there are many reasons not to do it:
-
LR is much cheaper then ER
-
with LR, they are in full control of who's leaving with ER - they're not
-
it will not boost morale in any significant way either - new employees, know they won't be able to work there till retirement, so they don't care if the company offer the possibility of ER in the future for them. They just see that once they reach grade 10 or higher, they will be LR-ed within two years, unless they start s---ing.
-
they don't have to - no one important to them, expects them to do so. Cisco has developed a brand of company doing regular layoffs, not ERs.
so give up a hope for any ER.
If you feel you may be hit during LR, try to quickly move to different team/project (don't know though if that's possible now, or are all the reqs put on hold now). You're much less likely to be layed off immediately after joining a new team.