Would any of you risk quitting your somewhat safe job if you got a really good offer (a decent pay increase included) from a startup? Usually it would be a dream come true for me, but at this very moment it seems like an unnecessary risk I should not be taking.
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Perspective from somebody who has done a couple of startups, and advised many others in a previous job.
Are you excited about the work you do today? Are you more excited about the work you would do at the startup? Is the product valuable / useful / etc. in some way or just another "me too" social media thing?
Do you believe in the vision of the founders and the leaders? Do they have a track record of success? Or at least, the kind of failure that doesn't make you facepalm at the idea it might have ever worked? (Experience with failure is actually a good thing, IMO. "Everybody should eat a pound of dirt before they die", my grandmother used to say).
Or is it just the money? Because if it's just the money, there are places to go that pay better than IBM without the risk of a startup.
What is the reality of the risk, as opposed to the uncertainty you feel (not that uncertainty is not a real thing, it's just that it can cloud rational thinking about risk)? What happens if the startup fails after six months? One year? Do you have financial obligations (mortgage, student loans, etc.) that you would have trouble paying if it didn't work out? Do you have family to worry about or is it just you? Do you savings or some other "backstop" if you end up being out of work for a while?
Can you put away the extra money to help tide you over if it doesn't work out and you are out of work for a bit while finding your next gig? Or are you just going to absorb it into your spending?
If it doesn't work out, how quickly could you get another job (even if it isn't one you love, but at least you can make a living while you find something better)? Do you have readily marketable or transferable skills?
Here's a good mental exercise: Imagine you take the job. And imagine the startup runs out of money after 12 months and folds. And I mean really imagine it. Put yourself in that scenario. What does your life feel like then? Is it a desperate scramble for money to somehow stay off the streets unless something else comes along in a matter of days? Or do you picture a slightly older version of you, with startup experience under your belt, calmly and patiently looking for the next opportunity in an economy that in all likelihood will be much more stable than today's?
And will 12 months of uncertainty about whether the startup will make it be worse than the indefinite uncertainty of IBM's culture of perpetual RAs?
You're asking this question in the wrong place, unless motivated by confirmation bias. No one here is going to gush happy-feel-goods about staying at IBM.
Do you work for IBM? If yes there is no safe job you should leave.
It depends on exactly why this seems like an unnecessary risk at this moment. Depending on where you are in the organization, staying with IBM is a long term risk.
I'm reasonably sure that your ability to grow technically will be better in a startup. And this might offset the concern about the current risk.
If you're under 38 yo and not a VP, it's obvious that you need to make a move. If you're over 64.5 yo, it's obvious that you should finish out at IBM. It's that awkward 26.5 years in the middle that are the problem.
You should leave for the startup. I left S&D for a startup back in '17 after ten years tenure at big blue. Not that everthing is rosy, but a jobsituation where continous RA's are absent, does something to your perceived quality of life. I wouldn't hesitate for a second. Go go go. Good luck with your endeavor.
Depending which team you're on at ibm, it could be worse than startup in terms of when your job ends.
That being said, if startup has enough money to last them for 2-3 years, you should be fine i guess (you should ask them about hiring plans ,funding and other expenditure although they'll paint a rosy picture).
There are many startup and job forums on facebook, blind and other social media where you can probably get specific info on this startup.