@1nuw+1dS0jnEt Intel is the sick old man of the semi industry and bringing in someone who used to see the patient when they were a child (just because no one else would look it it) is unlikely provide a cure. Besides, the fact some pretty capable doctors have come to look at it and rather quickly left the room does not provide much hope cure is possible even with the best available treatment.
A better question is whether the patient will have an orderly demise, with slow revenue loss and asset unwinding (the IBM way), or is finished off by a sudden shock (the DEC way). Time will tell.
@1zlv+1dS0jnEt Did Pat fix the perpetual process technology failures which delayed 10nm for YEARS?
Did Pat fix the brain drain?
Did Pat fix the lack of accountability in management?
Did Pat fix the tribal clans that rewards loyalty/nepotism instead of delivering value?
Did Pat modernize Intel's design methodologies to be more agile to deliver products at a more competitive cadence?
Did Pat fix the horrendous allocation of capital with Intel's useless acquisitions?
How is Pat going to be price competitive with ARM-on-windows alternatives that will have Apple-like performance and power-efficiency?
How is Pat going to convince semiconductor shops to trust Intel as a foundry with 0 track record and a history of failure?
How is Pat going to leapfrog TSMC which is outspending Intel at least 2:1, years ahead in technology and partnering with the largest technology giants with very deep pockets like Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm?
Does anyone buy Pat's comment than Intel will lead in High-NA EUV? It's preposterous on the face of it given TSMC's huge advantage and years of learnings in EUV.
How is Pat going to operate a foundry and at the same time compete with their customers? Do people think Intel will allow Qualcomm making windows ARM chips in volume? Or AMD? Or Nvidia making server GPU+CPU combos?
How is Pat going to re-tool all of the CAD tools and methodologies to be user-friendly to customers and become competitive with TSMC's platform, support and customer service?
How is Pat going to convince the hyperscalers like Google/Amazon/Microsoft to abandon their plans to build custom CPUs with custom IP to fit their datacenters in favor of commodity Xeons that aren't differentiated? Google is building their own CPU and doesn't exactly want the same thing sold to Amazon or Microsoft.
How is Pat going to deliver a return on investment given the huge capex over the next several years? Will gross margin increase given all of the headwinds above? Everything in the universe points to Intel losing pricing power against MUCH STRONGER competition with the ARM-ecosystem and TSMC+Samsung foundry ecosystem.
With the huge semiconductor investment bo-m, how is Pat going to mitigate the risk of over-building capacity. After all, semiconductors are cyclical and we always have periods of over-capacity. Remember Fab-42? How many empty shells will there be if no one wants Intel products?
Did Pat fix Intel's (deserved) reputation as a toxic culture by those in the industry?
Did Pat make Intel attractive to the best and brightest new college grads?
What is Pat's GROWTH plan? Without growth, people's careers stagnate as people cannot get promoted as easily since the compensation pie is not growing. Intel's forays into new markets have all been duds since Intel lacks a culture of change.
Intel has SO MANY problems, it's no wonder it took years to find a CEO replacement. The only one willing to do the job was an Intel "lifer" that has some sort of nostalgia for Intel's past success. The ingredients for that success are no longer in play (wintel virtuous cycle was replaced by the mobile-phone-virtuous cycle). Pat was HERE when that happened and he didn't really steer the ship in the right direction.
The value destruction at Intel is just staggering.
The market has no confidence in Pat -- Market-value is a prediction of future earnings.
The market is pricing Nvidia at 4x Intel.
The market is pricing Qualcomm at slightly above Intel.
The market is pricing TSMC at 3x Intel.
The market is pricing AMD at 0.93x Intel (Insane, given Intel was 100x not too long ago).
So, NO.
I have no confidence in management until I hear a credible plan that addresses the problems outlined above.