Happy New Year!!!!!
State your predictions of where and what will happen to and from Intel here!
13 replies (most recent on top)
This is why Wall St. is not taking Pat seriously. For a company that has failed in everything that's not x86 CPU's there's zero confidence that the company will suddenly succeed as a foundry. Let's not forget they have already tried this business before and failed. Pat now claims that Intel can beat TSMC at its own game when the company can't even get it's own process tech on track.
It's true that expanding into new markets is tough but that's no excuse. Look at Apple. They started as a computer vendor and very successfully expanded into and dominated smart phones. Then followed with iPod, tablets, watches, AirPods. Every single one became a market leader that everyone tries to copy. If that wasn't enough the "lifestyle company" started designing custom silicon that puts Intel, as 40+ year chip design company, to shame. They also moved into services which is now printing money. 2022 will see yet another product category introduced.
I'm not trying to troll Intel and act as a "fanboy" for the fruit company but trying to illustrate that you can't make excuses. The management and culture are absolutely to blame for Intel's pathetic track record of consistent failures. If you understand and accept this you will understand that Intel's fortunes cannot change until executive leadership changes. AMD was not successful until they changed their leadership to a competent team while keeping the same engineers.
Intel was a dime a dozen company in DRAM and EEPROMs and actually when it came to CPU the 4004 and 8086 wasn’t anymore special than the Z80 nor 6800. Their only claim to fame was IBM selecting them and letting them create a monopoly.
As others noted EVERYTHING else they touched or tried failed, every acquisition was a waste. The executives that lead every business came from the x86 include Pat and have no clue what real competitors and competition and innovation is. The trac record of having such leadership, all the money and yet fail again and again is a clear sign as any of cultural, manager and leadership failure. It is laughable to take seriously that Pat thinks he can accelerate in silicon when the failed for the last decade, Foundry where they have no competitive angle and a boat anchor or bat culture and leaders with no clue. Lastly manufacturing efficiency for the big honking fabs is a joke.
Nope Jensen and Lisa are having a good laugh at the major whoop a$$ being put on Intel
Intel is proud of their achievements in the past
therefore all engineering know-how were consolidated to 1, where we know is based on CPU
the fact is different biz, market, competition requires to do things differently, be agile and fluid is not what Intel good at. In fact, all other biz in Intel suffers/suffered because CPU biz was dominating and dictate how biz and engineering should be running. So, Intel never really excel other than high margin CPU/Server biz
Now, the cash cow also lag behind but Intel known it since 2018/19 but only admit it 2-3 years later.
I think 2022 Intel will be pushed to accept more reality that how bad they are in competition with the whole market. The way they work out, will need to diversify, for consolidation works that was done, was dragging down the whole company
Well said,. I've lost track of the number of diversification side bets Intel has tried and failed with over the past decades. Time and time again the company has proven that it's a one trick pony - x86 CPU's. Every single time the company tries to play outside its own sandbox it gets shamed. IoT, drones, discrete GPU's, Larabee, Xscale, phone application processors, AI, McAfee (FFS), Itanium, Optane, NAND, DRAM, foundry business, modems, networking, etc. I have a feeling in one of Pat's meetings someone is tossing around the idea of VR glasses and self driving cars.
Intel has 90% of the PC and server market.
These are mature markets that track GDP growth (sub 5% if that).
So...there's no room to grow very much and you shouldn't expect the stock to do very much (as it hasn't really moved in the past 20 years).
AMD, has minor share and has the room to grow into Intel's 90%, so it has a nice growth story. They also have GPUs.
Nvidia has dominant position in GPUs especially for machine learning with is growing like crazy.
Qualcomm is in the somewhat mature mobile phone space, but has an AMD-like opportunity to take share in PCs/servers.
Intel is trying to grow with:
GPU
Autonomous driving
Foundry
As we know from history. Intel is terrible at doing anything but CPUs and even with CPUs, they have fallen behind due to TSMC process technology leaping ahead. There are many reasons for this, but the main thing is culture and resistance to change. After all, their methodologies allowed them to dominate the PC space.
Anyways, I highly doubt Intel will quadruple as it defies the laws of economics.
Companies in very mature commodity markets don't suddenly quadruple unless their competitors stick their heads up their rears. AMD only grew because they executed well while Intel let two clowns drive the company into a ditch. Currently, competitors like Nvidia, AMD, Apple, TSMC, Qualcomm have strong leadership and are executing flawlessly while attracting the best and brightest. Not of lot of crumbs left for Intel to quadruple.
Pat and Raja will take intel to new heights. It will be great turn around like Steve jobs did to Apple and intel stock will quadruple in next 3 years.
Large market share gains for Mac computers.
Increased enterprise presence as the M1 MacBook airs deliver a ton of value for what you pay.
Once you go Mac, you never go back.
"Intel stock will be $90."
Maybe with a reverse split cuz the share price tanked and the incompetents in charge are desperate. lol
Intel stock will be $90.
you will own nothing and be happy
Looks like the product delay/slip is already happening. Granted, just a rumor for now but give the track history of Intel, or more specifically the graphics team, it's likely to be true:
https://wccftech.com/intel-arc-alchemist-graphics-lineup-to-launch-in-march-with-two-high-end-variants-dg2-512-16-gb-gpu-to-tackle-rtx-3070-ti-dg2-384-12-gb-tackles-rtx-3060-ti/
"...it is reported that Intel had initially planned to launch its ARC Alchemist graphics lineup in January 2022 but that was postponed to the very end of Q1 and may possibly even slip to Q2 but that remains to be seen..."
Or maybe Intel will reinvent the calendar naming scheme, like it did with the process nodes. So it's not April 1st, but March 32nd, and DG2 will eventually launch around March 200, cuz you know we said we'd launch in Q1 and March 200 is in Q1, and DG2 isn't delayed! Trust us!
Intel is like Michigan football.
A former powerhouse that gets their ax’s kicked when facing any real competition.
2022 will see AMD cross INTC’s market cap.
Qualcomm will sample an Intel ki---r ARM PC chip designed for windows
Apple will continue to school Intel in power efficient laptop chips
Nvidia will crush any Intel GPU
Intel will have multiple delays and execution issues on product and process
Mediatek, Samsung and others will enter the low end PC space
AMD will continue to take material server share from Intel
TSMC megafabs will continue to apply a beating to Intel