Will such high oil prices trigger a Recession?
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@3ywz+1fEc8Q7d You get my upvote for your acute observation and historical knowledge with your brain power! Yet, Powell is no Volcker. His one rate hike in upcoming March meeting speaks louder than anything else he said. He will not crash the stock market = S&P going into bear market.
Jay Powell's been given a mandate to squash inflation. He told everyone so in a recent interview.
'Shelby: Volcker put the economy in a recession to get inflation under control. "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?"
Powell: "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is yes."'
Fun fact. Powell isn't actually the Fed Chair right now. There is none. He's the Chair Pro Tempore. His reappointment is pending confirmation. Which means if he doesn't execute, then he's out. In EM terminology, he's currently on a PIP.
@2ier Are you an undercover demo. You act like the fed is not controlled by the president. Janet would have increased rates 6 months ago if left to her own accord
@2wer+1fEc8Q7d You are not remembering things very clearly.
https://www.8020investors.com/blog/trump-powell-relationship/
https://www.fi-magazine.com/358304/fed-cuts-interest-rate-again-stock-market-responds
Oil didn’t trigger it. It’s been triggered since 2008 when the president took interest rates to near 0 and never raised them for 8 years. In 2016 we had a president who was trying to raise these historically low rates to try and actually have a fighting chance to stop a recession from turning into a depression as you would be able to control the fall by proactively dropping interest to counter a downturn from getting real bad. Then we got our fearless leader in 2020 who dropped them back to 0 and then when the rates needed to raise because of inflation, he created a lie and continued with that lie until they couldn’t say it was transitory any more.
Now we have inflation, low interest rates, massive spending, already high food prices, high energy price, low energy supply (due to politics), short supply on almost everything, housing market way over inflated and every increasing crime.
Are we heading into a recession, I would say no. We are heading into a depression, can’t stop this by government spending, can’t catch it with low interest rates. So get ready to feel what it was like in the 80’s with old Jimmy Carter style economy.
Thanks for voting out the mean tweeting orange man. This is so much better.
They usually are a leading indicator, if you look back through history. But we are living in unprecedented time so who the h$ll knows at this point.
Not to gloat, but our company will thrive on it.
Yes!
Yes, definitely. Hihher transportation and manufacturing costs are passed directly to consumers and causes inflation and reduced demand. Recession is then just around the corner.
Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco made $46 billion in profit in 2021. Now they're using 40% of those profits for stock buybacks. Big Oil is raking it in, raising prices.
Peak oil price almost always followed by recession. It wouldn't take you much time to research on the topic.
Maybe, if it lasts a lot longer. Go back to 2008 and look at how long prices were over 80, over 100, and over 120. Interest rates will be a bigger problem.
The only good thing about a recession is that it will correct the high inflation.
High oil price will cause recession. CPI depends on it and the new CPI will be released this coming Thursday. Prices of everything increases with oil. In addition to the current inflation, people will slowdown on buying which will plummet our GDP, and recession is technicall 2 quarters in a row with decreasing GDP. So yes, oil price hike causes recession.
Not in and of itself, no.
The conditions causing the current spike will, eventually, if left unchecked. But it won't be the oil prices specifically, no. They're merely a symptom/indicator.