Thread regarding IBM layoffs

@6wli+1imjC8AM What the heck does that even mean: Intel couldn't get it done?

This isn't just about the fact that Intel is a cheaper faster processor than Z has any chance of ever being. (And Intel can run in a laptop or a major data center. Z can run wherever you have a chilled water supply.) It's also about the general awfulness of zOS and all of the stuff you need to make zOS do anything at all (CICS, various "connect" services, etc.) Linux and all hyperscalar cloud services offer a pretty easy way to build and deploy software without all of these semi-but-not-fully-redundant addons that you need with Z. (There is no "System Programmer" role in those settings! But wow you better have a good one if you want to run on Z)

When you say "Intel couldn't get it done," I'm pretty sure you mean "the wretched execution model on Z plus all of the extra cr-p you need to do anything put so many twisted threads into to the applications they were trying to port that it became close to impossible to figure out WHY it was ever necessary to do A or B or C on Z."

The fact that "Intel [they have compilers but are not a software company] couldn't get it done" really means that "Z [okay but not outstanding hardware; really awful software] caused so many horrors to be introduced over the years to the system was deployed [and, to be fair, making money] that no one alive can figure out what is going on in the system." The port most likely failed because Z caused the software [no one cares about the hardware in 2022] to be so obtuse as to take on a life of its own.

Anyway, what exactly did you mean?

@6rjd+1imjC8AM

Fedex is currently attempting to get off the mainframe completely.
Should be interesting to see if they can get it done.

Intel couldn’t get it done

You need to ask the question more clearly. How many fortune 1000 customers has abandoned mainframe in the last 10 years. The answer is almost none. Lots have tried to migrate off, but have come back because Intel could get it done.

What is the current main frame market share compared to 80s ?

Folks have been saying “mainframe is dead” for 30 years, yet it’s still here. Reminds me of the old joke “what’s the definition of a legacy system”? One that works. There is a reason the fortune 1000 don’t migrate off. Way too risky for the savings you would harvest. It’s better to farm the legacy vs replace the legacy.

Mainframe is dead?

And so are iPhones right?

doh

Furtunes? You mean that French all girl band?

Mainframe is dead. Time to move on you numbskulls.

All hail HAL

On the Furtune 500 maybe On the Fortune 500 no way

@2djx+1imjC8AM you're right. I conflated a bunch of things and imputed more to your original post than was reasonable.

One thing that I do find frustrating (and is unrelated to your post) was the rah rah hype when the z16 announcement finally went out followed by the belt tightening after the quarterly results annoncement. It's something of a come down.

@2fcz+1imjC8AM

I merely stated that the adoption of z16 is going well. I never said this is going to save IBM or help with the FCF. IBM bought Red Hat and bet the house on 'hybrid cloud' which is really Openshift and the CloudPaks. This is what should improve the company position, but we all know this is not happening because most customers don't want Openshift and the CloudPaks which are cr-p. The mainframe is not going to save IBM, it will just keep IBM afloat a few more years until IBM sells itself to an hyperscaler.

IBM Mainframe clients (from all over the world) attend the current Share conference in Columbus and the general sentiment there on z16 is rather low interest and slow adoption rates.

@1wnh+1imjC8AM ... "All clients [you are] working with..." That's a great story and I am glad to hear it. Now let's get back to the cuts we are all experiencing right this minute because the last set of results show that we need to focus like crazy on FCF. Are you telling me, @1wnh+1imjC8AM, that we're going to have a whole lot of extra Christmas pudding this year when all the clients you are working with make us so flush with cash we don't know what to do with it after 3Q results?

From where I sit, I'm not seeing a light at the end of this FCF cutback tunnel. z16 is okay. I don't think it's gonna make everything back to the way it once was. And let's not even talk about Power. The AIX mission is being "consolidated" in India. Fine...there is Linux on Power. But sending AIX off to die is still not a great story for Power.

Systems will soon be just Z. And Z is so painful to program and so expensive to operate that it will continue to shrink and shrink. We do this thing where we say how great we are doing because "we shipped X times the number of MIPS that we shipped last year." That is so totally bogus: comparing a couple of made up numbers. What we never do is say "we shipped X more systems than last year." Or, "we sold X more dollars worth of Z systems than last year. We don't do those things because ... I'll let you guess why. But now that z16 is out, I have every confidence that when we report 2022 results, we'll have shipped more MIPS than maybe in all of the last 10 years combined. And we'll still be focusing like crazy on FCF.

@1wnh+1imjC8AM

That's because of the forced business model of IBM mainframes. if you are 2 generations back on Z hardware, they won't support it through OS and service contracts. So forcing clients to invest in new hardware every 2 years is the new strategy. its disgusting.... IBM will lose many people this way. There's mainframes that have been running for 20+ years. IBM desperate for $$$ after bleeding for so long

@1rqk+1imjC8AM

Slow adoption of z16? Can you elaborate and provide source, information?
All the clients I am working with, all are in the process of upgrading or have already upgraded. I would say the adoption of z16 is going very well.

Judging from the slow adoption of z16 at this stage, I speculate the answer is no. Mainframe revenue and profit fueled most IBM experiments along the time, majority of which were not successful.

The writing is on the wall.

If they sell Red Hat and GBS, maybe.
Not if they continue on the same path.

Who cares about IBM anymore... IBM has shown repeatedly in the past 10+ years that REV, Profits and FCFs keep on going down. IBM is totally unable to fix any of their issues, they are always late on all the new tech trends, its Execs use the company as their piggy bank all while treating its employees like cr-p.

Forget about IBM, it will disappear some day, like many other companies have.

@1jln — check this list of top companies by FCF. Top 3 are hyperscalers, with Meta and Amazon coming in at 7 and 8.

IBM market cap is around $120B and FCF for 2022 may hit $10B if all goes well for perspective. To be fair, IBM FCF yield is pretty high (around 8.5%), but that just makes it an acquisition target.

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-cash-machine-stocks-will-churn-out-506-billion-this-year/

@1jln+1imjC8AM

"...IBM’s FCF is exceptional vs any hyperscaler out there "

Isn't this because the hyperscalers ACTUALLY invest their profits in growing their businesses vs IBM not investing in anything and seeing its business flounder in every category?

Agreed My money is on TCS

10 years from now IBM will be a division (enterprise) of a hyperscaler. IBM’s FCF almost guarantees that as IBM’s FCF is exceptional vs any hyperscaler out there

10 years from now people won’t even know what IBM does. It’ll no longer be headlining the tech news. Hardy har har. Ba-f! Hiccup. LOL. Burp.

ya definitely wont exist in 10 years. I never seen a company in such an awful state.

Once the full extent of IBM’s fraud is revealed, they will be retroactively be taken out of every past year’s Fortune 500 list.

IBM will probably not exist 10 years from now.

No way. Look at the last 10 years of financials. So sad it is a has been company.

IBM Yes

Meta No

Of course not... revenues, profits will keep on going down as IBM downsize the company to protect the Execs.