- This is setting up for a massive slingshot in oil. Everyone got short last week. They pressed it Monday. Meanwhile, we have structural deficits that are about to grow a few mil bbl/d if China opens. SPR is almost done draining. What if commercial stocks drain 5m bbl/ in ‘23?
- Shale isn’t growing, Russia is shrinking, offshore Guyana isn’t ramping until later in the decade, North Sea is stillborne, Libya shuts off every other quarter, Canada cannot grow bc of pipeline capacity, Mexico is a mess, Saudi is going offshore b/c onshore is melting…
- Tell me where the supply comes from? Venezuela won’t matter for years. Vaca Muerte??🤣🤣🤣 Nigeria?? 🤡🤡 Seriously, where does the supply come from?? Iraq maybe, but it is unstable. UAE has a bit more to give. Kuwait has a bit of spare. Offshore Brazil takes time. That’s it.
- Demand is growing 2m+ a day and we still have 2m of travel demand to restore. Look at India and tell me that 1b+ people won’t ramp their demand?? It’s about to be an epic crash-up.
- Some of this stuff is long-burn, some is almost immediate. China is going to re-open. They have to. Question of when. Cannot have a presence on the world stage and also weld everyone indoors. 5m bbl/d of commercial drain is about to hit the world and the f-kwits are all short.