Seen a few people take a swing at this - based on my experience both with Intel and other companies as well as what I’ve heard from those in the know, here is mine:
Start with 0% - congrats, you’re safe!
Add 5% because it’s Intel and they have a poor track record of picking the right people during headcount actions - nobody is “safe”
Add 15% if you work in any SG&A function (finance, HR, Marketing, IT, etc)
Add 15% If there is somebody else in the company that does a similar job and you could become redundant during a restructure
Add 10% if your work can be easily outsourced or there is a foreign team in a cheap Geo that does the same type of work
Add 5% for each of the following: White, Male, Indian, heteros-xual
Add 10% if you have the sneaking suspicion your boss doesn’t like you very much
Add 5% if your boss’s boss wouldn’t remember your name if you encountered them in public
Add 5% if you are over 40 and not yet a people manager. Add another 5% if you are over 50 in general or have not received a grade bump in the last 4 years.
Add 5% if you’ve received anything less than “Meets expectations” on a perf review in the past year.
Add 5% if you are a green badge employee
Subtract 10% if you are under 30 or are under 35 but have received at least one promo in the last two years
Subtract 5% if you have less than two years tenure (Intel seems to avoid using the method LIFO)
Subtract 5% for each of the following that apply: Black, Latino, disabled, openly identify as non-cisgender or g-y
Subtract 5% if you work in TD and/or put on a bunny suit as part of your day to day - congrats, there’s a direct line between you and revenue!
That’s about the best I can come up with. If you’re <10% I wouldn’t stress. 10-25% I’d polish the resume, start networking, and be ready. Over 25% start praying to whatever deity you worship and ask yourself WHY YOU AREN’T ACTIVELY APPLYING FOR A NEW JOB!