The bonus pool is finalized based on the population that is around as of 10/1. So for example, if you had 10% of the population laid off, but on their severance period as of 9/30, then their salary is not factored into the bonus pool. There is a whole forecasting/planning process done between the compensation team and Finance team throughout the year where comp reports what bonuses were from prior year, differences in salary in each area each quarter, etc. Finance takes those #'s to plan for what the current years' bonus pool will be, which is set then as of 10/1. If you get an increase in your rating from prior year to this year, theoretically, you should get an increase in the bonus you received last year, based on the guidance provided to managers (which you can find in TeamWorks by searching for compensation/bonus guidance for managers). I say theoretically because it literally all depends on the budget that was set. If it goes down from last year, you may not get an increase. Say, for example, the bonus budget is down by 15% from prior year, but you received an improved rating from prior year. It's very possible your bonus will remain the same as prior year or possibly even go down......or just go up slightly. Honestly, just remember that your bonus for current year is baselined as your prior years' bonus. From there, other factors are considered in to guidance provided to managers such as the budget amount, whether you were promoted during the year or not, whether you had an improved rating from prior year or not, whether you were less than meets on risk overlay, etc. And also know that managers apply discretion so there's no "secret sauce". Perhaps manager guidance says if all stays the same except your rating (an increase from last year), then they can give you between 10-20% increase from last years' bonus. They don't HAVE to give you that. because maybe there are others in the broader team (not just yours, but within your org that the budget was set for) that did better than you or who also increased ratings, so they don't have enough to give everyone who qualifies that much - that's just the guidance. Mostly, the "out of guidance" is for those who are trying to give TOO MUCH to someone based on their risk overlay or performance rating, not those that are giving too little. All of this to say, it's a cr-p shoot, really.