Fabs will be absorbed into Samaung or spun off.
After that, what is really left?
The aging x86 architecture..
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If IDM 2.0 fails (likely), things become dire. Unless Intel starts to uses third-party manufacturing as a backup (and didn't Jim Keller leave because he proposed this and it got shot down?).
If Intel is forced to split fab and IP because of the capital costs required, Intel fab portion will fail and wind down and x86 (whatever is left of it) will have to go into TSMC or Samsung and that will time for transition.
Intel CEO will scream and cry like a baby and ask for more handouts from US government claiming National Security interests. The d-mb politicians don't understand the difference between TSMC and Intel manufacturing and may want to bite. Except now we have > 100% debt / GDP and deficits well in excess of 4% (historically this is where countries fail). He-l even the interest payments on the debt are now about as large as the spending of the US military. So, US is headed right down the same sh----r as IDM 2.0 and it won't be likely to give any more funding to Intel.
This may not be the only scenario, but it sure looks like the odds on favorite.
The Intel brand may survive, but the company has been hollowed out for many years and this becomes irreversible as time goes on. The end is getting closer.
Yep all about the IP, no doubt.
Doubtful, Intel still owns a LOT of IP. If anything, it will just become a shell of it's former self collecting royalties on licensed IP and legal judgements awarded through litigation. It will probably continue to sell off parts and pieces that are no longer competitive including fabs.
The US Government (and taxpayers) got ripped off thanks to the CHIPS Act.
Intel can go back to its core competency... h1b immigration and family hiring.
In five years AMD will have 65-85% share. Intel will be sucking billion dollar losses as it bleeds thru its IDM. Ohio will be little more than shells as Samsung and TSMC thru their superior ecosystem pretty much lockup all leadi edge nodes. Intel secured a few defense wafer starts in Hillsboro but nothing else.
Tower merger will never happen as China blocks it. And Intel Foundry will be three strikes and out
Smoke