Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Why Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC can’t be beat with IDM and IFS

Since this strategy will inevitably fail, if you hope to last to the end many of you will end your career being laid off and retire or scramble to another company or leave soon and avoid the sinking.

For decades Intel bullied AMD and kicked their a$$ while at the same time it actually miss executed and released many generations of cr@p and wasted untold of billions ( Prescott, Itanium, Tejas …..) and 100s of billions on misguided acquisitions. It continued to win x86 because it had the biggest scale and an ecosystem built to leverage that scale that hid all the terrible decisions, wasted opportunities and incompetent leaders.

This will be another case of innovators dilemma. The fall of Intel now is inevitable as they missed the moment repeatedly to leverage their fundamental scale and technology advantage to pursue transformation to a future business that was slowly disrupting their x86 wall garden. Same can be said about IBM!!!! Intel did make half hearted efforts to venture out of that walled garden examples with xScale, Manitoba, Foundry but sadly weak leadership and execution and lack of patience led to their failure and shutdown. Did I say innovator's dilemma?

Now the exact same things that led to IBM fall will be Intels narrative. Ignore the fundamental competitive landscape, industry ecosystems, and economics. Praying for more money and even receiving some small portion of the need can’t make a dent in the fundamental economic and business and competitive situation that Foundry and Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and others present to Intel, really FUBAR situation.

Glad I left this $hitshow years ago. The future ending, last chapter is now all but certain with Pat. Most of it was all but written a few years ago, the only question is the amount of drama in the chapters being written now. It’s pretty clear now what it will be, my sympathies. It didn’t have to turn out this way Pat

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Post ID: @OP+1ldXXqcP

6 replies (most recent on top)

yes

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Post ID: @5gjm+1ldXXqcP

Intel is evolving into an IP house run by lawyers. Up until a few years ago, the company was been operating on a dated portfolio of products that were once popular in the marketplace. Those products have been long surpassed by the competition, and now Intel has nothing to offer.

The gravy train has derailed thanks in no small part to poor leadership.

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Post ID: @1ane+1ldXXqcP

Josh Brown on CNBC busts Intel's chops...
https://youtu.be/a26GkQhA3HA?t=143

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Post ID: @1bpx+1ldXXqcP

IFS will never happen and here is why:

  1. Intel lacks the ecosystem of tools, libraries and partners to broadly compete vs TSMC. this is 30 years to fix.
  1. Intel does not keep 4-5 generation of legacy nodes around like TSMC. This is a big, big deal. Customers want to know they can get parts for years to come. Intel doesn't have the capital or the low cost structure needed to keep 4 generations around.
  1. Manufacturing acumen needed for IFS is low volume, high mix of SKUs. Intel is low mix, high volume on it's products. Intel has no understanding or skillset on how to be customer responsive and do highly flexible production planning for a low volume, high mix scenario.
  1. The culture is broken. At Intel TD designs the process and you get what they give you. They are rude and arrogant and don't have the time of day for any product that is not leading edge and high volume. This will not sit well with potential IFS customers and the relationships and culture will simply not be compatible.
  1. Let's say I am wrong on all of the above... o.k. lets talk about over what period of time and at what cost would such a new venture take? I easily estimate that it would take Intel 10-20 years to invest to build the capability. The bill for that could be as much as $20 - $40 Billion. The problem is that the type of investor Intel has today will not stand for it. They will quickly grow impatient and cut the funding off. Already, Intel bonds have been downgraded (last week). I project in the next 18 months the dividend will be cut. The core business has degraded so far that Intel can no longer hope to fund the fantasy IFS ride with margin dollars from the core business.

What do you thing? Any comments on this analysis? What did I get wrong?

  • A Savvy Investor
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Post ID: @1lio+1ldXXqcP

You've been posting the same FUBAR BS for 8 years now, OP.

You were wrong then, you are wrong now.

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Post ID: @tqo+1ldXXqcP

There is a misguided belief that 5 in 4 and gaining parity in technology or maybe a six month tech lead will bring Intel back to relevance or make them money, it won’t!

What is lost is that all of the competition also have roadmaps and if they execute similar to Intel promises, by they way they have mostly, competitord roadmap have near parity and similar PPA gains but far larger competitive PPAC with scale and diversity and ecosystem that Intel will take a decade or more to match. Intel doesn’t have a decade it doesn’t even have two years!

Intel will never compete well with the competitive learning that comes from the huge scale and diverse product learning and cost advantages that foundry have with Apple, Nvidia, MediaTek, Qualcomm and so many others. Who bets a multi hundred million design, validation and whole business with IFS and fail like Canon and Ice. Intel internal teams were incompetent to their own desperate needs a joke to think they have capability or prioritize to an external customer A no brianer pay a little more and deliver on time ? Nobody has time or people or resources to dual source at the leading edge, all or nothing and we saw the bet the farm for the internal products at Intel on 10nm and 7 and 4 how that went

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Post ID: @wpg+1ldXXqcP

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