Long time employee here. Pat coming back received nearly universal optimism. I was so smitten I purchased 1000 shares at retail in the 50's and lost half of the investment. I guess that is like working a month for free. The most important thing to realize is the areas where we were not executing have largely been fixed. Specifically, the next gen process nodes have been doing very well... Finally. Our architecture has proven to be superior with 13th gen trouncing Apple and AMD on client performance. Taking back market share on the client. Engineering is looking quite healthy by that measure. Intel 7 is sound and producing. Sapphire Rapids looks amazing. Entry into mid-tier graphics looks strong for a new entry third player. Ray Tracing looks like a competitive advantage. Our 5G edge network business has been a shining and very profitable star for years. So the core business, if it wasn't for the massive expansions for IDM 2.0 all looks solid. IDM 2.0 has amazing potential. Everyone here should acknowledge IF it executes at a high level or even flawlessly as we would prefer, Intel will be back in a huge way and bigger and stronger than ever. Sorry negative "the layoff", consisting of bitter former employees... Intel will be just fine.
30 replies (most recent on top)
@3pcn+1ljfghoz Hold tight. A large tax deduction is coming up.
HODL 4600 SHARES HERE.
GO BLUE OR GO HOME.
Maybe 90mm or larger, economic not possible at the leading edge! To do so will destroy the whole business or make it like the military industrial base, no country can afford and even East versus West will result in far higher prices, what a sad ending for our children if this is what people want
"Chips are a matter of national security" - If Intel keeps pushing this narrative, every country will start thinking the same and make their own chips.
Anybody who thinks IDM2.0 and IFS can bring Intel back to relevance and competitive position is as delusional and/ignorant as the Pat, the ELT and Board.
Even if Intel executes perfectly it won’t be competitive in 2025 as long as TSMC, Apple, AMD and Nvidia execute. Intel has no corner on any vendor or technology angle. Matter of fact the only thing Intel seems to have a competitive advantage on is arrogance, belittling your competitors and suppliers.
@unq+1ljfghoz Summed it up pretty well.
BTW China and Russia don’t have chips or technology and seem not to have any security issues being behind, hard to understand the narrative that it’s a security issue.
"Our architecture has proven to be superior with 13th gen trouncing Apple and AMD on client performance" - These processors draw power like crazy! Maybe if you are boiling eggs while launching Ms. Word. Compare performance per watt vs Apple...
So much blind optimism in OP's post. If he's not a troll he surely works in the Intel ELT or Intel's HR department! I considered maybe it came from Marketing, but there's too many cuts going on there to warrant any sort of optimism.
Still, the post did make me chuckle, but not enough for OP to consider a second career in comedy.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-biggest-companies-in-the-world-in-2021/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/biggest-public-companies-in-the-world-2022/
Intel missing in 2022 but IBM still on the list
Big/little is nothing more than a pitiful attempt to squeeze more cores from a process that's two generations behind in order to look competitive to Costco type buyers.
I wish Intel customers share some of this Indian exuberance. I bet the bosses like to hear this kind of talk. The company changed from "only the paranoid survive" to "only the braggers thrive".
To be fair, this is common to the American working culture nowadays. The wave of imports has changed a once fighting work force into an army of Baghdad Bobs.
All right, you all are correct. I am the one who is wrong.
@vqf+1ljfghoz: The pot smoked by the OP seems rather high quality to me. He's probably lighting it off one of those 13th gen desktop parts too.
Hey genius.
If you look at those same sources you’ll see that Intel gained UNIT share in client, but lost REVENUE share due to deep discounting to clear inventory that nobody wants.
So - yay, we lost money?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/intel-loses-market-share-in-server-chips-but-makes-gains-in-pcs
So you witnessed someone of low quality saying I was smoking something pertaining to client market share increases. This is publicly available information; easy to find for smart people. And sorry, but the new SR server chips are extremely good and weren't represented in this earnings report. Don't worry about market cap. We've been through tough times before and right now our product mix is excellent. There is too much collateral on the web to need to defend the greatly superior 13th gen over the comp. 13th gen client is amazing and so is big/little. The comment about 44 minutes laptop power is disingenuous and ignorant. Satire to be sure on your part, but Intel 7 sips power. Userbenchmark is but one synthetic which shows the overwhelming advantage but most games also show a clear winner.
OP -- which low quality pot are you smoking today? Looks like you can't afford good quality pot and come up with sh---y post.
@unq+1ljfghoz I’m not even advocating for Intel to be the steward of US-led semi-manufacturing. They’ve probably lost the right to advocate for that.
I’m asking is what is the scenario in which the US reclaims this industry. Some government-backed merger of GlobalFoundries and TMG that’s competitive with Taiwan and South Korea? We have the design chops, we need to be able to back it up with actual products. Again - national security, as well as supply chain implications, that ripple thru the economy.
Long time employees live in a reality distortion field where they think it’s 1999 forever.
The game has changed and Intel is far from the top dog. Even AMD has passed Intel in market cap. Nvidia is many multiples of Intel. TSMC outspends Intel in capex by >2x. He-l, even Texas Instruments is bigger as well as Qualcomm, Broadcom etc.
The TSMC ecosystem (which includes all of the above companies as well as the trillionares like Apple, Google, Microsoft) is now the top dog. It will be very difficult to unseat this formidable alliance.
Intel is basically competing with this alliance that has pretty much unlimited capital to invest and advance leading edge technology. TSMC does not operate in a vacuum. It’s a back and forth process between them and their customers which do joint R&D. Innovation is pooled and shared across all customers.
Client is falling off a cliff.
Server is crashing due to AMD.
13th gen client is basically a tie vs AMD +/- some noise
13th gen vs Apple is WAY behind in power efficiency which is what is actually important for laptops. It’s a bit of an empty victory if you ‘win’ by cranking up the voltage and draining your battery in 45 minutes. Not to mention that you exceed battery current limits and have to throttle significantly when unplugged.
Anyways. Keep dreaming.
In the real world, chronically negative cash flow has a way of ‘disrupting’ delusional people.
@qhk+1ljfghoz I’m not necessarily talking about the business model, for which Intel carries A LOT of blame -but reality is, TSMC and Samsung are heavily subsidized. It’s not a fair fight.
"Chips as a matter of national security" seems to be the moniker of the "leadership" crowd. Relying on government handouts and customers we don't yet have to drive IDM 2.0 sounds like a questionable business model. Massive quantities of low-cost parts—too bad that wasn't an option before our competition took over the world.
Let me see if I can top your downvotes:
I appreciate the attempt at a calming post. Part of the issue is that so much of how and where we compete is at such a level of abstraction from anyone not in manufacturing that few people really actually know what’s going on, other than hear-say. Pay cuts, security incidents, and groupthink about it all amounts to rocket fuel on spiraling morale. Nice to see an attempt at returning pay/benefits this AM.
Hopefully you’re right. Intel notwithstanding, chips are a matter of national security - the inability to produce them at a sufficient level of sophistication in sufficient quantity makes our country less secure and less competitive.
IDM 2.0 What everyone here should acknowledge is how bad our track record is at executing at a high level or flawlessly. For the record: If IDM 2.0 fails the blame will be on leadership.
Old timer here, never seen this level of sh-t storm here, ever.
Whole world is (IDC etc) saying that Intel has lost market share and Intel employees are saying they gained market share! Intel employees live in a different world. Brain washed , totally.
It’s a lot more entertaining though with the paycuts, lies, layoffs, and dividend cut.
I wouldn’t have it any other way.
We need Elon to save us.
Have we learned nothing over the last 10 years? At every meeting, all charts show everything in green until the product is canceled. In every news article, we say everything is looking up. When we miss huge milestones, we say it's just a hiccup. Pat recently demonstrated five fingers and four fingers like a kindergartener on television. The world has seen through our delusional marketing reports. Can we stop lying to ourselves and make a plan that actually has a chance of success?
Everything's just fine. You heard it here first. Cancel the layoffs and pay cuts.
Wow. I want whatever dr-gs you're taking. Good luck with that.
Thanks Pat
thanks for the update, sunk cost fallacy