You are all fools if you believe all is good at Intel
The last time Q earnings were in the $11B range was in 2010 when costs were less than half and headcount at 2/3 of where they are now. Q1 2023 financial performance is a total and utter disgrace to this company
Intel just needs 20B in cash an a lot of their troubles will go away. I doubt they will get 20B from the government handout, but man that cant come soon enough.
Government needs to just give it to Intel. Intel has spent so much energy lobbying for this and is an iconic company for the country. And the only US company that can remain competitive in manufacturing.
If fabs are spun-off (or split-off), then many business units cant stand on their own!
So it will end up ki-ling many parts of Intel.
But unfortunately this is the kind of amputation reqd to keep Intel alive!
Bingo @vtl ! And most people with a brain would have told you 3 years ago that the only real option is to split-off the fabs. PG is running a strategy that would have worked 10 or maybe 5 years ago when Intel still had process leadership or at least parity. Now, it's just a s-u-i-c-i-d-e mission.
Intel's trouble is far far worse then just general covid economic slow down. They are fundamental. Each new process node costs a fortune to bring on line. Intel is 2-3 generations behind. On top of that, Intel has lost so much share that it cannot fill the fabs even if it does catch up on process nodes. The only way out is to divest the fabs or do the 'moonshot' IFS attempt to fill fabs by going after $TSM the best company on the planet for silicon manufacturing.
So, even if the company can raise infinite cash at low rates it would have to dislodge a competitor who has an lower cost structure, decades lead, massive ecosystem, no DEI program, low cost GEO and sr leaders that actually know what is going on.
For these reasons, Intel's prospects are far worse then that of AMD, Nvidia, TSM etc.,
Intel's problem isn't they don't have the right products, the problem is the same one everyone else is facing, the market collapsed. And it's doubly bad, because Intel's (and AMD's) customers had enormous amounts of inventory. So, what's actually selling to end users is much greater than what Intel (and AMD) are selling, because of the inventory burn.
But, again, it's context. Intel thought they were going to do even worse. So, when you are expecting a class 5 hurricane and get a class 3, you're relieved :p . You're still going to have a bad time of it, but it's still a positive.
Personally I think Intel is in a difficult spot. Cash burn really accelerated this quarter and the company raised $10b in debt. Next quarter they may need another $10b. In fact I believe Intel will need to burn cash for the next several years as it builds out and ramps it's new fabs. Competition is a big concern as well. AMD likely is continuing to gain share, and ARM processors are picking up steam both in client (Apple M series, Qualcomm Oryon coming soon) and Data Center (AWS Graviton, Ampere). So a recovery in computing does not necessarily mean a recovery for Intel.
Cover your bets shortie.