US Economy added 199k jobs in November + low unemployment!
Inflation cooling and unemployment is not rising… this is the sweet spot.
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Review the adjustments made in prior months over the last year. You'll see a consistent pattern of downward revisions. These downward revisions are not insignificant (Aug -62k, Sep -39K). Probably going to see more downward revision in '24 and more gov jobs.
Inflation has retreated recently if compared YOY. However, since Dec '20, prices have risen 21.3%. Lower inflation does not mean prices have gone down, just risen a little less.
Watch for an adjustment in the way inflation is "calculated" in '24.
The number don’t tell the complete story. New jobs are much lower paying than the jobs lost. One Tech job layoff can be the equivalent of 4-5 retail/ restaurant jobs in pay. Hence lost tax revenue. Then there are the seasonal jobs. Some said it earlier, because many of these “new jobs growth” are retail or hospitality, a person may have to work 2 jobs to make ends meet. Standard of living has dropped and cost of living has risen. No wonder America is never on the happiest country list.
Too many people are still underemployed, under paid or working 2 jobs to make ends meet
The national debt is off the rails
The younger generations do not give a cr-p about shareholder earnings
AI is taking over
Plan for an evolving economy that is going to be both complex and erratic. The old farts in suits still don't understand the power of the youth, the public & social media.
They still think they can do enough ad buying to salvage a battered reputation. You can no longer "Buy the narrative" or "spin the press"
Social media has changed all of that
Inflation has been coming for years…can’t hold the rates at zero forever and then a pandemic….
Most of the jobs that were added were in healthcare or services (hotel and retail) sector. Plus those striking UAW auto workers were coming back and added to this count. All banks are cutting like crazy. So dig a bit deeper behind these numbers. Even CNBC gurus said the same thing. Prepare for 2024 cuts and recession followed by interest rate cuts. Only after that banks will recover.
Sorry but only the totally ignorant believe any of that. This economy may be the worst in 50 years.
We’ll revisit this post in a few months
Don't hold your breath just yet (unless the statistics you've been reading this from is seasonally-adjusted). The employment numbers usually go up during the holiday season because of the help needed in retail stores. Also, a lot of businesses hesitate laying off their workers in Nov and Dec.