Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Worst case scenario for Intel

Following is how I see the worst case scenario for Intel (which I hope will not happen):

1 - Foundry business moves forward while the product business is completely shutdown (I expect this to be a gradual transition rather than an overnight decision. First sign will be to shut down Intel Labs, which is a cost center with little contribution to the bottom line. A telltale sign of this will be a significant headcount reduction at levels of 50%, reducing the total Intel Labs headcount to ~400. Remaining business units will increase their in-house research to compensate. To a large extent, they are already doing that)

2 - Foundry business focus does not go as expected (despite removing the product business from greater Intel). At that point Intel will probably go on sale. Intel is currently spending a lot of money on assets which will be very valuable to a company who knows how to make money from foundry business (such as TSMC).

3 - The majority of the existing foundry employees will be laid off. The scale of this layoff will depend on who buys the business. I expect such acquisition to be a multi-party venture. Therefore, depending on the mix of the venture, most existing employees may or may not stay.

Came across this breakdown here: @per+1t14hlpU. Your thoughts?

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Post ID: @OP+1t46f1fu

13 replies (most recent on top)

Otellini is an id--t. RIP. No way him getting lost in the plot with his blindness for all to see would have won against the current crop of competition. Get a grip guys.

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Post ID: @3uum+1t46f1fu

something along these lines is not the worst case scenario. it is the likely scenario.

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Post ID: @3jpy+1t46f1fu

A lot of losers already got their bag.

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Post ID: @3bhe+1t46f1fu

I think the blueprint is DEC, but worse. Digital had some nuggets. Intel lost the process race and most of its architecture is forgettable, soon obsolete or unnecessary. Jensen ran the table.

Pathetic, for them to languish, all during one of the most amazing opportunities in semiconductors. Obviously senior management
In 2015 they paid nearly $17B cash for Altera. They could have bought nvidia and had a few billion leftover....think about that. Probably was never possible, but that is the math.
Andy Grove to Barrett was ok, but Otellini was the nail in the coffin. A sales guy taking the reins of company driven by process and architecture. Process. Grove was a chemist and engineer..Intel always won on process...until they didn't.
Once you fall behind this badly, it is very hard to recover. wtfdik?

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Post ID: @2xck+1t46f1fu

what kind of fu-kery is this

as i understand it here is our FOR LOOP:

  • our corrupt broke government bails out a large corporation like intel
  • corrupt incompetent behemoth intel buys up/destroys smaller better competitors
    or moves money back up to its "investors"
  • the board or "investors" at intel then donates to political campaigns to keep the same
    corrupt politicians

END LOOP

this converges to the pair (corrupt incompetent corp, corrupt incompetent gov)

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Post ID: @1wsn+1t46f1fu

The government won’t allow AMD to be the only x86 manufacturer… antitrust concerns… unless x86 is completely decimated and only ARM chips are designed and manufactured moving forward… which is unlikely… at least for the next 10+ years: too much corporate legacy code still running on x86.

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Post ID: @1edx+1t46f1fu

oh for the love of god, intel needs to just die
skilled competitive folks can form their own smaller better companies
intel is just su-king the life out of the semi industry
it is being kept alive by our corrupt broke government

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Post ID: @1icu+1t46f1fu

Worst case is nobody wants Intel low quality chips so it has to eat its own sh-t.

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Post ID: @1ifu+1t46f1fu

Uncle Sam will not let Intel's fab business die. Plain and simple

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Post ID: @1ohn+1t46f1fu

The early signs are there for sure. Intel Labs already had a pretty bad hit in terms of headcount reduction recently (down by 10% this year alone - total population was about 800 people in the Labs!) Another problem with Intel Labs is the current G9+ numbers are way higher than other BUs in Intel (I think it is almost twice as high), which has significant budget implications. The travel and purchase budgets were also hit badly, which already affects the quality of the work and the motivation of the researchers. Things aren't looking rosy at all for the Labs unfortunately...

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Post ID: @esp+1t46f1fu

One irony in all this would be the downfall of Intel Labs while Pat is the CEO. He was the one who founded Intel Labs in the first place as far as I know many years ago while he was at Intel.

This would be a very interesting unfold of events...

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Post ID: @rml+1t46f1fu

This does not look farfetched to me. The split between the foundry and the rest of Intel business may be designed to simplify moving in this potential trajectory.

Research is an important part of Intel business, however, focusing this research to the BU needs makes sense. Intel Labs is a big organization with many layers of hierarchy that causes issues in terms of speed of delivery to the BUs. By localizing the research efforts to each specific BU without any dependency to Intel Labs, can save costs while improving the quality of the deliverables to the BUs. Also, keeping research inhouse for each BU will also simplify communication as well as management of projects.

Another problem I see is the US government may end up shifting its investment to Intel's competitors to achieve its overall global objectives (i.e., stop China's progress in semiconductors). This may also speed up the sales process mentioned above.

Competition for Intel is at its highest and fiercest in decades. Therefore, if Intel cannot increase its profitability with its existing structure, it will have to shrink significantly to survive. The above worst case scenario makes sense given current trends. Let's hope Intel does not go down that way.

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Post ID: @tie+1t46f1fu

Everyone has a worst case scenario…..this is pretty good for a worst case scenario. Best case is Gaudi 3 is a hit, meteor and lunar lake are kicking butt. Arizona, oregon and Ohio are built out and we are building chips for a bunch of companies as we sharpen our skills in foundry. I think this scenario is more likely.

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Post ID: @wkf+1t46f1fu

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