Yep, GE will buy wireline and oil tools spin offs. NOV will buy the rest
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This is just one laid off wire line guys opinion.
On the Cased Hole side:
Baker has a clear advantage in the Cased Hole Evaluation arena with the RPM Pulsed Neutron Tool. BHI leads in the Casing Evaluation Arena with the Verti-log Suite of tools. Production Logging is a wash since neither side has viable Horizontal Production Logging System like the SLB tool.
HAL has a leg up with Cased Hole Cement Evaluation with a SLB knock off Ultra-Sonic Imaging Tool (BHI doesn't have one).
In North America the Perforating and Horizontal Pump Down Market is probably a wash since both sides predominately use third party gun systems and explosives. This market winner as always will be determined by well maintained equipment and good motivated people on location.
On the Open Hole side:
Both sides have really good technology and data gathering. Both need to a better way to convey wireline logs in horizontal wells. Reliable Open hole Tractors or other new technology has been waiting for smart wireline guys and gals to invent it. Logging while drilling and Thru Bit logging is taking more and more of this shrinking market. So I guess I'll say this is a wash between BHI and HAL.
So what will happen in the takeover? I hope they combine the best from both and merge into one Wire-Line Group. If they don't, then it opens the door for new competitors in the North American market and for SLB to step in and take a bigger share of whats is left in this downturn. The winner will be who is in the best position to grow faster and provide the best service, technology, and build market share. It will turn around and get busy again, it always does. Hunker down and hold on. Remember that Wireline is still the best way to evaluate rock and put holes in pipe.
GE seems like a strong possibility.
I worked in Wireline manufacturing at HTC and can tell you it's a mess of a business unit. The tools are poorly built, few manufacturing procedures even exist, and traceability is nearly non-existent. The employees on the shop floor are set up for failure due to poor business practices dating back to the Atlas days (wasn't Atlas run by Martin Craighead?) and Wireline (manufacturing) management at HTC is unwilling or not competent enough to fix the problems. Manufacturing personnel, manufacturing engineers, quality engineers, and even design engineers can see where the problems are and have valid, workable solutions, but management doesn't listen to any of those people.
GE