Qualcomm is at the tipping point staring down the steep slope of economic ruin. Look how quickly RIM and Nokia crashed. One day they were on top the next they were devastated. Will that be Qualcomm's fate? Being just a silicon vendor is no longer enough when Apple and Samsung do their own silicon and develop a finished product. Jana is trying to steer Qualcomm away from ruin before their $2B sinks with the ship. If Qualcomm is just going to be a silicon vendor they better be blowing away the competition or the Samsungs, Intels and Mediateks of the world are going to nibble away at Qualcomm's market share like hungry piranhas.
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While economic ruin is unlikely, continuing layoffs, stagnant or dropping stock prices, and a worsening work environment are not.
Let's face it, SM is under pressure to do something, and the tools he has to do that are too add BD in front of his initials and put the whip to your ass, or to just send you to the curb, and both make him richer and you more miserable.
The point is "economic ruin" is a bold claim to make without data. Even the crappiest wall st analyst can piece together some predictions about the business and cash flow, rather than pick unrelated company like RIM as proxy for future. By that logic apple is doomed to be the next Sony and headed for economic ruin. It should matter to the average qcomer who might believe such alarmism without realizing what a value stock is
Some Wharton MBA’s do nothing but analyzing stock trend and get paid millions for it. What does that matter to QCOM’er? A big part of the comp is in RSU. Ask around and see who does not care about stock price. Unfortunately, stock price depends heavily on growth, not on stagnant revenue, regardless of how high it is.
Stock price topped out 15 years ago.
the thesis has switched from "you just don't know your 80's telecom history!" to "just look at the stock price!". They teach this kind of hand waving at Wharton?
Since June 2014 when stock price topped out, QCOM has dropped 10% after each earning report. If it is another single digit percentage growth, then we might expect another 10%. What is it going to be this time?
Let the Q2 results speak for themselves.
Still no data. Just more "head in the sand" trolling like all the other "head in the sand" comments on other threads. At least give the plausible scenario how QC will be in economic ruin within 10 years. Its not an exercise to the reader. The burden of proof is on you
I think the general observation is that "anyone make a chip" which is true....mediatek/Huwaei/Samsung/Apple with less number of people are making good chips. there is little differentiation for the customers. This is the biggest crunch for Qualcomm which has a lot of people to do the chips who are not needed. RTP/Austin/Blore/SD/Bay area to some extend are involved in chip design which is not needed as chips are not generating that much profit compared to QTL. so that will lead to layoffs .
Nokia actually has a large patent portfolio, like Moto used to, but as Motto shows patent royalties as a business model only works when everyone is getting a piece of the pie.
It won't be google or apple that kills this business either, it will be a riding tide of small players who don't want to play this game as silicon gets more commodity and less science and anybody can cad a chip and a phone.
If you are sitting there with you head in the sand thinking royalties are it, you know nothing about the history of telecom IP. Just look at the FRAND ruling from M$ vs Mot. When socket process drop and royalties become a larger share of smartphone prices than the BOM.
RIM and Nokia are phone manufacturers. QC is the tech (like Intel) that enables it. Its not the same....I know I will get some heated responses so BRING IT ON. Maybe you can compare to AMD as they are struggling. Again, POST REAL DATA instead of NEWS SMUT....
Post some real data to support your BS instead of feeding off the crappy news. Your no better than the STUPID journalism that is trying to win over viewership.
you say that, but without data to back it up. It may be based on paper and politics, but those papers are legal contracts. Products can become irrelevant much faster than contracts. Sure, some government entity can say you can't do business here, or those contracts are invalid, but that's not what happened. The royalty stream doth flow. Also, wouldn't China declaring IP to be worthless throw homeland fave Huawei (and its large portfolio) under the bus?
Your way off base. Please stop reading the news and making up more doomsday scenarios.
QTL without silicon is just a patent troll with a decreasingly important portfolio.
The patent royalty business is one that can collapse quicker than one with a physical product, since it is entirely based on paper, will, politics and bribes. We saw in China just how easily QTL can be out in its place.
When you stop bundling the royalties with the chips you plant the seeds of an even faster decline for QTL.
The guys looking to make QTL the stand alone cash cow look forward one quarter at a time, they are not betting on the long race.
"just a silicon vendor". where did QTL go?