One scenario is that QCOM works like heck to get the 820 out, and does, but by that time, Samsung has also made progress on their chip and its good enough for their purposes, so there is little reason to move, esp considering their cost savings. They then take their previous generation chips and start selling them to lower end phone manufacturers, further eroding QCT's position. MediaTek and others continue to edge up and QCOM, while still having a large market position, has no where near the lead that they once did. All the while, they continue cost optimizing things to make their numbers. In parallel, new projects will be started to help diversify their position, but nothing comes up as a home run (which shouldn't be a surprise, given their past record). QTL continues to print money, but Korea pulls a China and QCOM has to cough up another 1B and accept further reduced royalty rates. At this point, other major governments realize they can extort QCOM and well, and try similar efforts. Continuing investor pressure starts to make a break up look more attractive, since selling off QCT to Intel will be the only way that QCOM can compete with Samsung. The break up will occur, and the QCT portion will be rebranded as Qualcomm-Intel. At that point, Intel will come in and do another round of layoffs between the QCOM guys and their wireless guys, but they will finally have their prize. Employees will burn out, executives will get golden parachutes, layoffs will crater property values in CV, but it was a good ride while it lasted.
11 replies (most recent on top)
@Anonymous123525, I think your premise is incorrect and it's wrong to assume that this spinoff will happen in QCT's current form.In my opinion idea here to strip out IP value creation part from QCT and merge wit with QRC, QTL( just a bunch of toll collectors/enforcer 12-13% fee ) and create a separate high value and high margin business and call it QCOM2.0. QCT as we know today will mainly become purely chip design and test house. This new QCT can be very interesting to G, M (and I,A,MTK,numerous Chinese/Taiwan's suitors )...G and M may be willing to pay very DECENT price for this well running,well reputable semiconductor design and test house IF they are forced to choose to lock down their ecosystem and get vertical to compete with fast growing A but if not we have bunch of other buyers in line. Best possible outcome for investor if everything goes as expected and wind still blowing in same direction when this re-structuring completed and QCT2.0 is available for sale....how well buyer will use it is too soon to tell(..did not work out well in MOT&G scenario in past ). Most of Qcom IP (specially modem IP) will not be allowed to go to either A,M or G in their current business model and will be blocked by regulators.
And this is why you guys will never be executives. Do you really think QCT makes sense for A or G? Not in a million years. It's not what they do, it's not the business they want to get into. Why would Apple want to sell modem chips to other phone manufactures? Why would Google want to do the same? You can forget about either of them making a play for QCT. Instead look for Intel or Samsung. The only two companies in the semi industry big enough to make such a deal.
I find it funny how people are so stuck up in their coding standards. I've been through Q in many tech teams, and they all are very passionate about their own coding standards :-)
Takes me about a day to switch to any new coding standard. Yes Sir! You pay me, and I'll write the code in any formatting that pleases you, no worries.
The industry standard for the past 30+ years has been 3 spaces for indentation, no tabs!!! Just saying...
IMHO, I think A would cry blood murder if G did it and I think G would do the same if A did, and gov't wouldn't allow either. I think its unlikely either will. Its a huge thing to swallow and its just a mess. G already took their pain pill with Mot, seems unlikely they want to pay for QCT. Google's thing is to enable all vendors to compete, using G's technology. If G took QCT, then there goes that angle for them. As for A, there is the modem for them, but QCT sells MSMs to enable Android. Are they going to buy the business just to then stop selling and enabling Android vendors? Seems unlikely. Really, Intel seems like good candidate, but maybe they are just cash strapped at this point and its too big for them to swallow.
BTW @quitQCOMLongTimeAgoWhenIFeltThingsCouldntBeSustainedAndNowFeelVindicated != @bitterGuyWhoSpamBlogsHereContinouslyBecauseHeIsEitherPissedBeyondBeliefOrHasNoCopingSkills (yea, I'm a camel casing programmer as well. damn that QCT coding standard is just burned into my brain).
Apple or Google should buy QCT
This is OP. Nope, not @goodEnought or @goodEnough2 (and certainly not @illuminaBoy). I'm @quitQCOMLongTimeAgoWhenIFeltThingsCouldntBeSustainedAndNowFeelVindicated.
Oh that was easy. https://www.thelayoff.com/qualcomm/post/6300855665950720
are you the same Krugman-broken-record-ranter @goodenough, or a new @goodenough2 ?
cool story bro
What abt apple..they like to be vertically integrated. So Samsung and apple have their own proprietary modems, but rest of the smaller companies get meditek or Intel if they still exist..