Thread regarding Chevron Corp. layoffs

Son, if anyone knew how long it would take to recoup one's shortcomings in the stock market, believe me, they wouldn't divulge that secret. The answer is not a straight forward one. The best answer is, It Depends. If you believe the stock you've held for a while has dropped a lot, is it possible the reasons for its decline are almost over. If you think so, then waiting for reversal may be something to consider. If you sell and cut any further losses now and redirect the money from the sale to another stock or mutual fund that has just started an upward trend, perhaps that may be the way to rebuild your portfolio. When investing, there's always ups and downs. Don't gamble and chase performance. Continue to buy and reallocate as needed. You will never be 100% right, but learning what the fundamentals are that influence a particular stock or mutual fund sector, is the best thing you can do. If you've held CVX for too long and seen your 401k balance come down 40% from its high, don't feel too discouraged. Many people will give you advise, but remember its your money. Do what you feel to be the right thing. Good luck to you.

It makes sense if you use the proceeds to buy something else you think will perform better than Chevron stock over the time period you intend to invest.

If you have a long time to retire how does selling at a huge loss make any sense? You guys need to preface your advice with how long you can wait the stock price out vs how fast you can recoup lost money.

I use this Warren Buffets saying all the time. You can fool the fans but never the players.

I use this Warren Buffets saying all the time. You can fool the fans but never the players.

Warren Buffet goes into a buisness before investing. He gets what he calls the employees take. Can you imagine Buffet spending a month at this place. Strip all of the MCP stuff out. Jyst look around your little world and would you trust your retirement to these clowns. 15 years ago I would have not hesitated to say yes. This company is in for not stormy weather....that's being kind. They need to build an Ark. Dump your stock and put it into an index fund. If your over 55 it's time to reallocate...

This is Anonymous 133645 again. When I said, "Good advice," I was referring to the original poster, and NOT the poster called "My take on it." My advice is to sell, and not to expect CVX to be higher a year from now. Please pull a chart on Yahoo Finance and see what BP stock has been trading at since January 2010 with emphasis on the effect of the Macondo incident in April 2010. It has never recovered. Chevron is brewing their own mess with extremely negative levered free cash flow which will depress the stock for a long time to come due to servicing the debt. Just to put it in perspective, CVX has negative levered cash flow of $9.5 billion, whereas ExxonMobil has just negative $1.8 billion, and Shell is not negative at all. Also, Chevron's earnings do not cover the dividend payments, so they will have to do one of two things: cut the dividend, which will send the stock price tumbling because it signals financial distress to the market, or alternatively keep borrowing to pay the dividend which hurts the balance sheet and stock valuation as well.

Good advice. People need to realize that even though the stock price is off of its high by about 36%, this is not the bottom. It will get worse. The strength of the dollar moves in the opposite direction to oil price. As the dollar gets stronger, oil price gets weaker. The Fed intends to raise rates in the very near future, and forex traders are going to pile into the dollar even more so than today, driving commodities lower. Also, people contemplating selling CVX stock need to remember shares are sold as, "First In, First Out", meaning the shares you have held the longest are the ones that will be sold first in a transaction. More than likely these folks have shares that were purchased at a price substantially lower than the shares bought when CVX was trading above $100. Theoretical stock price is the net present value of the levered free cash flow into perpetuity divided by the number of shares outstanding. Anyone with a clue should know that the NPV of Chevron's free cash flow is drastically evaporating. The high price of the stock over $100 was based on growth expectations being delivered at a particular point in time. That goes up in smoke with every MCP delay (think Gorgan and Big Foot, etc.). My advice as a financial advisor is to sell a substantial number of shares necessary to adjust your 401K such that CVX is no more than 15% of your portfolio, or less, depending on retirement date. Choose a mutual fund with a very low cost ratio instead, like 0.5%. I personally sold most shares of CVX at $133 a year ago in order to get my 401K down to 5% CVX. I sold the remainder last month at $93 per share and now hold no CVX whatsoever.

I've been investing in CVX off and on for many years. I'm not a holder at this point, but I've enjoyed its ups and downs and I made lots of money playing it. Today's bump is no different from any other, but it will be short lived. This stock has been tumbling since the last high around $111. Sadly, for current holders, it will continue to erode and be somewhere in the 70's soon and stay there through December. If you have the patience to wait a year or more, the stock will go higher.