The oil prices are expected to hit 30 per barrel in October. Saudi Arabia has no plans to cut production.
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The $30/barrel price range for oil is possible. Maybe not exactly $30, but somewhere between that and $39. If that doesn't materialize by the end of October 2014, expect it to go up slightly into the $40-$50 range through the middle of 2016. There is an oil glut in the world markets that will last for a good while.
Actually what Young & Dumb posted wasnt an analogy.
Shitty analogy
People keep quoting this number on this site. If you are so sure that 30 dollar oil is here I hope you are putting your money where your mouth (or fingers) are. Quoting oil prices is like being confident on the weather in Houston, good luck. I for one want as low and hard as possible of a dip. I know it will hurt, but its like pulling off a band aid. Let the pain come and lets get this over with. The OPEC members are hurting just like we are. We are delaying the inevitable. If oil goes to 50-60 then this will be a long ad painful decade. If oil gets to the 20's then people will go under, some OPEC members may have social revolutions, and it could effect some wars, BUT it will rebound fast and maybe harder than the world wants it to. Those of us with engineering degrees (or similar experience), do you recall controls design? Rebound is related to the variance from nom to peak. We can have a steady controlled rebound or we can have a heavy wave where oil hits 20 and rebounds to 110 (then hits 40 then 90 etc). So take controls, add in geopolitical crap and human market emotion and you have the oil market.
I for one want it to get low fast. If you like band aids to be pulled off slow, well, you have other issues to worry about. One thing is for sure, we and all will have layoffs, and those who are laid off will have life style changes, but life will go on. The change will likely be good for many of the people. I am half concerned half excited for change.
Good luck colleagues.....