If Goldman publicly says $20, you can bet they are taking a position at the hundred bucks. They always publicly tell you one thing, in the background they are betting on something completely opposite.
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Agree, the GSes and Pickens are consistently wrong. It's about their specific agendas. But, IMO $20 is possible if the big boys truely get in a serious pissing contest. Not likely because the "free" side has to appease shareholders with shorter and shorter attention spans and the "dictator" side has to protect their necks. However, if the Exxon's, BP's, etc. (not Chevron, they do not have the balls) decide to sit tight while the mid and smaller US indies decide to keep producing, there's a chance a global glut makes OPEC implode. And wouldn't that set up a profitable world for the next 50 years.
So,... the economies of both China and India are gonna, like,... shrink? World populations will cease to grow? At $20, maybe the Saudis can continue to operate. For awhile. But, to believe crude prices that low can continue, for any length of time,... man, that's just laughable.
$20 WTI is possible, but not likely. If you go back to the $10 oil in 1998 and escalate at 4.3% per year (the long term price appreciation rate for oil), you get $20 in 2015. So it is possible, based on historical glut periods, to think that we can get to $20 again.
FYI, the mid point (P50) of the long term price channel for oil is $50 in 2015.
What is it that they say about ASSumptions? never ASSUme.
It's the worse case scenario, but whoa, wouldn't that be a sight to see. Just in case though it's seriously time to polish the resume and jump a sinking ship.
They reported that was the worst case scenario forcast Ftard
Sh!t we've got Jim Cramer up on this message board
Goldman Sachs report - 9/11/2015.
False