Severe Housing Shortage Threatens
San Diego Region’s Economic Growth
The San Diego region’s housing shortage has become acute, with the region failing to develop the number of multifamily and single-family homes needed by 2020 to accommodate population growth.
That’s according to a study by Gary London of The London Group that was released Monday by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.
Of the required annual growth numbers, only 64 percent of single-family homes and 44 percent of multifamily units have been added in the region, according to the study.
“In San Diego, we grapple with being one of the nation’s least affordable housing markets. Housing in San Diego is expensive because of undersupply,” said Jerry Sanders, Chamber president and CEO. “We have known for some time that a lack of housing is a major impediment to the region’s economic health. This new study is a validation as it quantifies just how much we need to do to meet the needs of our growing population.”
The key findings from the study include:
• The region’s substantial housing shortage is getting worse as post housing bubble development (since 2008) has produced a fraction of the housing units required. Multifamily building permits averaged at 3,153 units since 2008, which corresponds to only 44 percent of the units per year that SANDAG expects to be needed. With respect to single-family permits, the figure averaged 2,272 units since 2008, or at 64 percent of the units required annually.
• Between 2010 and 2050, the San Diego region will experience a shortage of single-family homes ranging from 43,388 to 118,602. In addition, in the North County, for every one home that is “moderately” priced in the $600,000 range, there are two homes priced over $1 million.
• Ever changing and highly difficult “regulatory” barriers to building homes in the San Diego region will challenge our ability to provide sufficient housing to accommodate population growth.
London said the findings underscore the critical need to meet existing and future housing demand. The most serious risk: the region would not be able to grow, or even sustain, its employment base.
“Identifying the ways our region is underperforming in terms of housing creation is critical to the future growth and development of our region,” said London. “By issuing this study we are bringing to light the reality that we cannot depend on cities to accommodate growth just because they have it in their plans.”