Stock market also plummeting. Interest rate go up soon, expect 15% reduction.
26 replies (most recent on top)
@Anonymous200514 why are you a lurker here talking/trolling about real estate. Perhaps taking your own advice is the right move?
even so, disagreeing with the CNBC permabull story does not make one a doomsayer. There's plenty of economic data to suggest everything is NOT awesome. And the most glaring evidence -- the Fed is panicked about one measly hike, as if they forgot where the "HIKE" button is. Maybe it's like switching to OSX after 7 years of ZIRPDOWS and wondering where the Start button is.
Buying a home is not for everyone
ok bro
NorthKoreanBurgerFlipperNonQLurker,,
It's not a differing opinion that the lurkers post about real estate. If there really were interested in real estate, they would be in a real estate blog talking about...duh...real estate. The point of the lurker posts is apparently to try to connect a layoff at one employer with apparently a doomsday real estate crash, as if these folks would be able to profit off of such a crash. If they were going to profit off of one, they would already have done so in the past few years. I'm willing to bet that most of the doomsayers, even if true real estate did correct 30+% still wouldn't be in the financial position to buy. Perhaps if these folks spent less time dreaming about watching other people fail and fall down to their financial level (which won't happen on a massive scale) and spent more time trying to figure out how to make more money so they don't fall behind, they wouldn't remain in the stuff financial situation they are in. Just saying....
Cool story bro
@bitterlandlord, despite all your "TLDR" posts, you are always victorious over your imagined enemies on this board!! I think I shall call you "Bitter Landlord The Victor". but that's too long, so is it OK if I simply call you @bittervictor? Also, I think it's amusing everybody is "blind" or a "doomsayer" who has a differing opinion or perhaps doesn't buy into local real estate projections out to 2050. Sounds like the Dow 50000 guys. We don't all need to be ZIRP dependent permabulls. BTFATH may or may not work forever.
Anonymous200415. I think you are blind. maybe from behind the counter of taco bell, you and your colleagues see the economic situation differently, I guess. Just saying...Anyway, like I said, have fun renting....I'm sure it must have been fun the past 5 years :(... How much of that went to your landlord again so that he could pay his mortgage versus yours? Nevermind...
It's not a conspiracy its just an observation. Now get back to your non q lurker conspiracies
Anonymous200397, You tin-foil hat/conspiracy theorists really crack me up. Even when the data is right there in front of you (and you can confirm the same thing with any other public study done on the current housing crunch in SD, not just this one done by this group), you still are still married to your prejudice beliefs, that you'll find anything (real or Memorex) that slightly suggests your conviction, which isn't based on any real data, is correct. It so reminds me of the idiots on the RE blogs that were thinking RE prices were going to crash an additional 30-40% after they already crashed 30-40% back in 2009. Some of them felt that way, because -70% real estate prices was necessary before prices were affordable for those people, so that was plain "hope for change". The other folks could afford things but didn't, and they surely missed the boat and for the next 5 years, get to deal with ever increase 5+% rent price increases between 2009-2015. Whether you want to believe the data or not is up to you. But what is real is, builders aren't building enough homes in the area that are affordable. Partly, builders pulled back significantly during the meltdown, and haven't restarted inventory to the levels where demand is needed. Second, the builders that are building are choosing NOT to build lower cost homes, but instead near $1million homes. Why? Simple there is a demand for that, and contrary to what might be your financial limitations and what might be unobtainable for you, there is a demand for that submarket. Builders aren't going to be focusing in this $1million submarket if there wasn't enough demand for it. That leaves buyers at the lower priced markets more/less screwed. I challenge you to find many new construction home for less than $600k that isn't way south down in El Cajon or Chula Vista, or way east in Riverside County. And yes, as a renter it gets even worse. With so many people locked out of affordable housing for purchase, they have to rent, and that puts a huge strain on the rental market in SD too. There isn't enough rental units in places where people want to rent (either near the ocean, or near work). Builders are trying to address that too, BUT they are doing so by building "high end" apartment complexes that cost a fortune. Again, they can afford to do that because there's a demand for that too, and they know someone will pay, for example, $1700/month for a 1/1 apartment in Mira Mesa (at the end of 15), or $2500 for a 2/2, or in the case of north county, $3000/month for a 3/3 CONDO....Would I? Hell no. Is there someone that will? Definitely yes, because I see those apartments occupied. Like I said, have fun renting. It's not looking good either way, if you are trying to buy a new home, or if you retreated to renting indefinitely.
Does anybody know of some bitter commercial real estate owners/operators? Sorrento valley is flooded with for lease signs. Cmon biotech! Move in now!
Pro real estate development group carries out study showing there isn't enough real estate development. Brilliant! I think the cola industry says free soda is healthy too
Well, i think the gap between people that can afford to own property and those that can't is getting bigger, especially in CA. And those that continue to rent will continue to fall into the role of economic serfdom. Just like in feudal times, in which serfs work the lands for wages that is ever growing smaller by the day, to the point when it's barely enough to pay landowners for usage of their land and shelter with ever increasing cost, let alone to be able to own land. And as smaller landowners make bad financial decisions that causes them to lose their land (in modern times, people that took out ALT-A loans to buy BMW's on credit), they become serfs too, since it becomes that much harder to recover from losing one's land loss, putting a strain additional strain on those serfs that are looking for a land to work/live on. And when the land is subsequently sold at a discount, it's not other serfs that have financial means to buy them, but other landowners that have deeper pockets or larger land overlords (like REIT corporations). So, just like during feudal times, the amount of land ownership will eventually be concentrated only by a small percentage of the population, and most everyone else just works the land. That's not just for the residential real estate market. I think for almost most people, the idea of owning any sort of Commercial Real Estate is out of the the scope of an individual's ability. The best Commercial RE's all have been picked clean by corporations and REITs, which wasn't the case 20-30 years ago.
Retail sales collapsing. I don't know if good weather or bad weather is to blame. Hopefully it means serfs are saving for that 3% down payment instead of shopping at tjmaxx. please please please leverage up more. This printing press has a mind of its own
Blame NIMBYism! As long as all the development is north of Via De La Valle. it is OK by me. http://londongroup.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/London-Group-Realty-Advisors-Regional-Growth-Accommodation-White-Paper-11-6.pdf
inventory is down. weather is better 20% YoY. Culture is 8% duller YoY. Biotech is 17% bubblier. Housing prices should go up 50% over 3 years as a result.
cool short reply brosef !
Cool long story bro
Full article here, renter.....http://www.sandiegometro.com/2015/11/daily-business-report-nov-10-2015/
Nice try renter.....Enjoy renting... Meanwhile, here's a copy and paste (again)....
San Diego Region’s Economic Growth
The San Diego region’s housing shortage has become acute, with the region failing to develop the number of multifamily and single-family homes needed by 2020 to accommodate population growth.
That’s according to a study by Gary London of The London Group that was released Monday by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.
Of the required annual growth numbers, only 64 percent of single-family homes and 44 percent of multifamily units have been added in the region, according to the study.
“In San Diego, we grapple with being one of the nation’s least affordable housing markets. Housing in San Diego is expensive because of undersupply,” said Jerry Sanders, Chamber president and CEO. “We have known for some time that a lack of housing is a major impediment to the region’s economic health. This new study is a validation as it quantifies just how much we need to do to meet the needs of our growing population.”
The key findings from the study include:
• The region’s substantial housing shortage is getting worse as post housing bubble development (since 2008) has produced a fraction of the housing units required. Multifamily building permits averaged at 3,153 units since 2008, which corresponds to only 44 percent of the units per year that SANDAG expects to be needed. With respect to single-family permits, the figure averaged 2,272 units since 2008, or at 64 percent of the units required annually.
• Between 2010 and 2050, the San Diego region will experience a shortage of single-family homes ranging from 43,388 to 118,602. In addition, in the North County, for every one home that is “moderately” priced in the $600,000 range, there are two homes priced over $1 million.
• Ever changing and highly difficult “regulatory” barriers to building homes in the San Diego region will challenge our ability to provide sufficient housing to accommodate population growth.
London said the findings underscore the critical need to meet existing and future housing demand. The most serious risk: the region would not be able to grow, or even sustain, its employment base.
“Identifying the ways our region is underperforming in terms of housing creation is critical to the future growth and development of our region,” said London. “By issuing this study we are bringing to light the reality that we cannot depend on cities to accommodate growth just because they have it in their plans.”
Cash for your home
HomeReady is da bomb! Free money! No job!
can't hike won't hike
Only 15%, not good enougj.
Cool story brother, nothing new, every expecting that.
Wall st journal also reported prices will fall in Southern California.