Post your prediction, percentages please. I am estimating this at 80%
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I wouldn't be betting on the company's demise just yet. Due to the massive risk in debt from energy companies, holders of debt will be open to negotiations. They wiped out $1.5B of debt at the end of 2015. A safe bet that these things will continue to happen. We'll have asset write downs in Q4 and Q1, so the ratio of debt/assets is still going to look concerning on the surface for the near-term. At some point, oil prices WILL rebound, and our debt/asset ratio will become much more attractive, and all the analysts and naysayers in the financial community will be silenced. Expect further stock price decline after we announce Q4 numbers, unless the 2016 guidance contains very promising reduction of Capex. If we can keep capex below $2B, keep production somewhat flat, and illustrate that cash burn rates have slowed significantly, the investing community will be more receptive. OR, I bet we announce horrible Q4 results, scare debt holders, and then use some of our cash to buy bonds for 50% or less of their face value. Hold on - next 6 months are going to be a wild ride, but I have a feeling the chances of BK are extremely low. 10% chance by end of next year.
Chesapeake IS bankrupt. They just haven't filed yet.
50/50 by 1/1/2017 - if we survive thru 2018 we will be fine
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CHK/filings
Frank's not dumping the stock, that's selling stock to pay for tax purposes.
Frank J. Patterson dumping stock
http://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+4+CHESAPEAKE+ENERGY+CORP+For%3A+Jan+14+Filed+by%3A+Patterson+Frank+J./11230527.html
What's your timeline? Nothing coming due for awhile. Long term liquidity is pretty much dependent on pricing, but if prices remain sub $35/bbl, I'd say BK becomes a strong possibility by summer 17'