Thread regarding Sears layoffs

Time until cash balances and credit facility reach zero.

I decided to do some simple math using two cash burn rates ( 5 million and 8 million per day) to see how long until SHLD is bankrupt. I used 3rd quarter statements to calculate on hands and extrapolated from October 29th 2016 until now.

Assuming a 5 million burn rate SHLD has approximately 37 days left till they are broke. Putting us at January 24th 2017.

Assuming an 8 million burn rate SHLD has approximately 5 days left till they are broke. Putting us at December 23rd 2016.

I feel the true number lies somewhere closer to the 8 million burn rate. I figure they won't last out the year.

But hey, at least the band on this ship plays on and the checks are still clearing for us.

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Post ID: @OP+KUXOF3R

17 replies (most recent on top)

You do get unlimited hours during liquidation. I made almost a years worth of salary in three months during our stores liquidation. Sweet deal!

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Post ID: @3alq+KUXOF3R

but, what about the 'not fully funded pension plan'. and does unemployment benefits apply to bankrupt companies?

UE varies by state but most likely you would qualify so long as you don't quit.

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Post ID: @3fak+KUXOF3R

If you're gonna stay, enjoy being worked like a dog during liquidation. They're gonna make you earn that unemployment.

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Post ID: @1rrk+KUXOF3R

@KUXOF3R-1dow I don't know of anything you can do except 1) Save by setting aside as much money as you can! and 2)Put off buying anything super expensive such as a house, car, or furniture.

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Post ID: @1dbu+KUXOF3R

Pre steps? Lol. Do your job and wait for your layoff. Cash those unemployment checks. Find new job. Wash rinse repeat.

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Post ID: @1rcc+KUXOF3R

but, what about the 'not fully funded pension plan'. and does unemployment benefits apply to bankrupt companies? SHC richly deserves (just riches) but the workers need to know how to be prepared. does anyone have any pre-steps to take?

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Post ID: @1dow+KUXOF3R

Only two things not ring fenced left to sell are home services and innovel. Good luck getting enough from those to last out the quarter.

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Post ID: @1kon+KUXOF3R

They can still sell assets in the attempt to keep the company going. And it doesn't matter who is holding the bonds. This doesn't determine the current price. We'll see what happens going forward.

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Post ID: @1uno+KUXOF3R

Dumb reply- Eddie cannot simply shut it down - it has to repay its debts and the pension fund - he is not legally allowed to shut it down without paying or declaring bankruptcy. He cannot sell more real estate since it can be clawed back in a bankruptcy and it's also worth a lot less than the amount that went to seritage. Sears needs billions right now just to get through the this year- as for the bondholders argument - take an educated guess who hold the bonds- then ask yourself why they haven't dropped- hint it's the same reason why apparently the company is trading at $10 and still worth $1.3 billion. It can't last until the end of this year.

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Post ID: @ehi+KUXOF3R

We'll see if Lampert can pull a rabbit or two out of his hat. I think there are a few moves that could keep this sad saga going for a few more months. EL seems determined to burn every last asset in his crazy quest for a "transformation". So going into next year they could sell more real estate, cut inventory even more, cut most hourly staff from the stores and require the salaried managers to work 90 hours a week.. It's even possible they could get more loans. As pointed out below, bondholders still seem to have some confidence in SHC, or at least that they would get paid back in bankruptcy.

I've been watching the decline of Sears for decades now, and although the end is certainly getting close it's always good to be prepared for a surprise. It could drag on for awhile. Or Eddie could decide to just shut it down. There's no law that says a company has to go all the way to bankruptcy.

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Post ID: @anl+KUXOF3R

more cash goes out daily than in . that is the problem. They sell a dollars with of merchandise for 95 cents.

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Post ID: @jog+KUXOF3R

Good attempt but the business world isn't as simple as this.

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Post ID: @dyw+KUXOF3R

Agree, think they're dead, but not sure you accounted for incoming cash on a daily basis. That reduces the cash burn a fair amount. Not enough to save them, I just think that BK always takes longer than you expect. this is still almost a $20 billion revenue company, which gives them plenty of ways to mess with cash...

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Post ID: @vlb+KUXOF3R

the 2018 and 2019 year bonds are still trading close to 100 cents on the dollar i think 95 cents was last price. they still have some options left. But yea the fitch report said probability restructuring high 12 to 24 months.

Year their liquidity is very poor. Interesting too they can not borrow anymore short term credit reached 750 million limit in the last financial statements. Not sure what will happen though bonds trading almost at 100 cents may mean they can hold on for longer.

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Post ID: @ywb+KUXOF3R

They cannot monetise the real estate- also don't forget they have real estate taxes due soon as well... There was a great post 4/5 below which outlined why it's cannot survive beyond June.

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Post ID: @fob+KUXOF3R

don't forget though they still have 2.5 billion real estate according to Fitch.

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Post ID: @ntl+KUXOF3R

good math

looks bad

sorry, time to move on

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Post ID: @dvh+KUXOF3R

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