Let us reflect on the past few years under BK and what it portends for the future.
x86 sales have fallen for almost two years. Implication is that intels largest revenue, profit and volume drive continues to contract with no end in sight. This means smaller factory, smaller profits and smaller revenue base to fund expensive process and product development. What is worse the cost of product and process development is increasing ever faster, but now Intel has to amortize that on smaller volumes. That is one of the reasons we had the silent ACT and ACT in 2015 and 2016. BKs sorry attempt, but he didn't make any structural changes fundamentally improving or strength intel. Also sadly nothing in x86 land is different either. Go to your local electronics store on Black Friday and see beyond the door busters what people want, it ain't a x86 powered computer. BK and intel have gotten an F for igniting interest and to cover his failure he lays people off. If you look at third world which carried much of the growth, for the most part they have moved to the smartphone. Guess what intel doesn't play there either, tried but lost billions and gave up on phones, give up on what the world cares about to chase fads.
Servers is the only bright spot and revenue and margins are growing, but Intel has missed their growth targets every quarter. Why, because with cloud hosting more and more companies are going to MS, Amazon and others and the consolidation is making for efficiency and slower growth. BK missed this obvious thing too. Lastly, Intel makes so much money that MS/FB/Amazon and especially China are looking at alternatives to x86. Guess what they got an option in ARM which conquered phones is moving to 10nm and at that node will be competitive and when ARM moves to 7nm in 2018 will beat Intel for efficiency. PPAC has Power first and that is where ARM beats intel in every metric. Soon, very soon Intel simply won't be able to compete with ARM even in servers as they got killed in phones. In 2017 ARM will ship about a billion chips on 10nm, Intel will be lucky to get a few hundred thousand shipped on 10nm. The virtuous cycle of huge volume, fast process cadence has moved to the ARM camp. They are using the same strategy that Intel used 20 years ago, fast process cadence, huge volumes to beat the incumbent. BK and his minions seem too stupid to realize the game they played is being played on them. For the same reason Intel won 20 years ago, is the same reason they will lose. Embracing ARM on 10nm with LG is too little to late.. Server price and margins will drop as the ARMy rises in 2018.
IoT, Modems, Memory, AI, are all areas where Intel has NO expertise, prior presence of any kind. What is worse these areas have entrenched well funded multiple companies all competing like crazy. List a case where Intel has won a segment or market where there was multiple competitors? The last time Intel won was x86 and they had a monopoly on the microcode and got lucky that IBM picked them. Ever since than Intel has NOT dominated anything but that. Look at the billions spent in Itanium, x86 phones, and tablets, and Intel had process leadership and still couldn't win. Forget fluff on circuit about IoT, Modems, Memory and AI. These thrusts are going to cost Intel billions and they will withdraw after getting kicked in the nuts. Intel has never been successful in commodity or segments with multiple competitors, simply not in the DNA of the management, nor the structure and culture of the company. To pretend is to deny understanding one's own strength and weakness.
Lastly, Intel's manufacturing and technology leadership has hit an iceberg. While leading TMG and the company the company's core competency and Crown Jewels have been fumbled by BK. 14nm was late, and we can only guess about 10nm with Kaby and Coffee coming, suggest that four generation on 14nm means 10nm won't arrive till 2018, a full two years late. It isn't harder Samsung and TSMC are fighting each other in the ARM world will be at 7nm. BK and Intel seem very complacent allowing 10nm to slip and 7nm to also slip. The competitors are hungry and desperate, they've caught up, and next year will be ahead. All this on BKs watch, who should be fired?
Intel has nothing at this point, they are like Kodak or Blackberry past the tipping point. Don't be a Turkey and have a plan, or you'll be stuffed as BK rides off into the into the sunset.
Gooble Gooble are you a Turkey?