Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Someone calculate the ROI for Mobileye $15.3 Billion

Yearly sales of cars globally are around 70 million. Compare that to around 240million PC sales.

Not every car will be driver-less, and there are 3-4 other competitors and ETA of first shipping cars is around 2022. Let's say Intel gets 1/3 of the market share or 23.3M potential cars globally, let's be generous and say 50% are driver-less so 12 million cars with Intel chips because everyone loves clown shoes for some reason. How many chips and at what cost? Say a cool $100 dollar adder JUST FOR THE CHIPS ONLY, so each year Intel get 120 million.. So divided by $15 Billion...well..you get the picture..remember this dream starts in 5 yrs from now which the cost will be around 18 Billion e.g. adding R&D (15.3 + 2.7-wages, buildings, cars etc.) Even if each car added for Intel chips was $1000 that would still take 16 years to hit breakeven. I am sure I am missing something here?

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Post ID: @OP+MmLPUVW

23 replies (most recent on top)

After a few decades I can safely conclude intel has a virtuous cycle all to itself.

They have arrogance and a my way or highway methodology all cornered and can safely say that the powers to be are using it in a vicious and virtuous cycle that guarantees doom for Intel

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Post ID: @2bwu+MmLPUVW

"How do you expect Bain and Gartner ever to understand this culture of nano management, caps and controls at Intel?"

That's precisely the issue. BK pays these people money to come up with bold new ideas and create the "market models" around them. Endless hours are billed and teams of blue badges spend thousands of hours developing Powerpoints, massaging the fake numbers, etc. to validate the ideas.

All of the cultural incentives in Intel are to please the boss (and not show that it's a bad idea) so lots of stupid stuff - that Intel doesn't have the culture, competency or advantage to succeed - get approved and internally funded...people's livelihood and careers get attached to doomed ventures and the game becomes convincing the bosses to continue to internally fund them.

Decision forums, strategy consultants, etc. are just part of the song and dance.

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Post ID: @1qmb+MmLPUVW

@MmLPUVW-1wlb. I do feel sad for the many s---ered into TMG and working on 14 10 and 7 who have to put up with daily toil and not a break for years past and years forward to have to look forward to stupid 3D ARs till they are cast off into the cold ocean with the next ACT.

I can only hope the rank and file have an exit strategy as in 2017 and 2018 another 15-20K will be laid off for sure to save money from the disaster created.

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Post ID: @1mzt+MmLPUVW

@1wzh - Rank and file will be laid off swiftly, without previous warning, and with minimum packages in 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, senior management will take multi-million golden parachutes to their next vacation destination. It will certainly be painful to watch, but hey, that's the whole "engineers are supermarket cashiers" poisonous culture that clown shoes, his TMG goons along with Murthy and his band of QCOM rejects have created.

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Post ID: @1wlb+MmLPUVW

@1kdi: would agree with you on recent years, but the rot started much earlier. ~10 years or so ago but nobody cared back then, apparently it takes a TMG hit before anyone notice (given the shilling here, a lot still haven't). Seems AMD's and the ARMy's timing is almost perfect, Intel's only response options are price reductions, lowering profit margins that's the only reason stock is above 15.

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Post ID: @1cfu+MmLPUVW

@MmLPUVW-1osf. Bain didn't ruin this company, the stupid managers who don't know $hit from TMG have ruined it!

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Post ID: @1kdi+MmLPUVW

@MmLPUVW-1kpr Of course I don't expect any outside consultant or any of the internal senior management to possibly fix the poisonous and broken cultural.

At it's pinnacle about 15-25 years ago the extreme culture worked for intel during the go go growth years of the duopoly, but business is different now and leaders are dinosaurs these days and will soon go extinct, the sooner the better for what is left of this once glorious company, totally ruined by this old arrogance style.

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Post ID: @1ltt+MmLPUVW

@1kpr: what makes you think these management "defects" don't originate from Bain?

Things weren't that crazy ineffecient during Andy's regime. Started with CB's SET where he basically gave Bain free reign to mess up the company, it's gone downhill ever since.

Increasingly incompetent leadership didn't help either, just gave corporate raiders like Bain more control.

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Post ID: @1osf+MmLPUVW

"the more inward and much harder and more painful physical things intel must fix"

The inward gaze points one epidemic across Intel. The amount of overhead engineers spend in following mind numbing processes, approval chains and decision matrixes. It is no understatement to say that all engineers spend a good 40% of their time in meetings where they do not solve real techinal problems, but convince some clueless manager, program manager or a planner on why solving a specific technical problem deserves their approval. Those who are in charge of leading the ship have created a massive middle mangement layer in order to control the masses and make them accountable on a daily basis. When people are directly accountable to their managers, you wonder what value is added by four other matrix managers. If it takes so many matrixed managers to manage engineers' time, how fgicient is the process. In smaller companies, engineers talk to each other directly to resolve issues..At Intel, it will have to first go through a committee before even it gets a hearing. Then 10 other deemed stakeholders spend 4 meetings to approve that engineer will spend two hours to fix the issue, bug, feature or whatever. Is it any surprise that innovation and execution at Intel are the envy of glaciers. Intel works slower than all big governments.

How do you expect Bain and Gartner ever to understand this culture of nano management, caps and controls at Intel?

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Post ID: @1kpr+MmLPUVW

@MmLPUVW-ruh

Intel shares fell on Monday's news, dropping 2.1 percent to $35.16. The company had $23 billion in cash on its balance sheet before the deal and said it will pay for Mobileye with money parked offshore.

http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2017/03/intel_pays_153_billion_for_mob.html

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Post ID: @1xwe+MmLPUVW

@MmLPUVW-rhb 👍

Got to reflect and ask what is Intel's core expertise / strengths and reflect on why leveraging it in the past didn't work. Then decide do you focus on what you are really good at and still have some inherent advantages or just throw good money late at the latest fads against companies and competitors way better positioned than you.

The second it seems to be what Intel is more comfortable doing than doing hard internal assessment / reflection and make the painful adjustments.

I think Bain and others tell BK what sounds glamorous and captures press and makes commissions and promotions than the more inward and much harder and more painful physical things intel must fix.

No different than the many fat people at Intel who drink frees soda and eat Hamburgers and fries think there is a shortcut to being healthy and fit 😉

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Post ID: @lsm+MmLPUVW

"Another thing, when is the IRS going to wants its tax payment from this $15.3 billion off shore money"?

pwr - care to elaborate what this offshoring refers to? Uncle Trump won't view the offshorers favorably.

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Post ID: @ruh+MmLPUVW

Look, it is foolish to try to calculate an a-priori ROI on this fiasco. There will never be an ROI just like there was no ROI on mobile and most of the other tangents that Intel thought would drive the company to 100 Billion in revenue (does anyone remember that number from PSO days?).

This is total desperation and it simply gives investors and employees some hope for a short time. Mobileye on its own would have been much better off with high revenue and margins. Now as part of the Intel corporate mess, Intel SMG and others will begin screwing with the Mobileye plans and ruin a good thing.

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Post ID: @rhb+MmLPUVW

Well, we just purchased a new Ford Edge for 34K. I am not willing to add another 4-5k for Self-Driving and then a monthly subscription for data. Everything is expensive and this is a "nice to have" not a requirement. This is a niche market, and Intel cannot afford a niche market. The point is...no matter the numbers and cost... When is breakeven on the $15.3 billion? Or...maybe BK should have just thrown it in the stock market - ? Another thing, when is the IRS going to wants its tax payment from this $15.3 billion off shore money?

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Post ID: @pwr+MmLPUVW

Intel strategy is outsourced to Bain, Gartner and any other number of charlatans preying on the naivete and cluelessness of BK and the leadership team.

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Post ID: @bdb+MmLPUVW

Maybe someone is inferring it below, but i thought it was more about having tens of millions of mobile data collecting spies roaming the streets everyday and profiting from the data. You will never be able to go anywhere or do anything in public without having everything known and analyzed.

How much will that be worth?

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Post ID: @jen+MmLPUVW

Have no fear I am sure the senior executives saw a business angle and money at the end of the rainbow to justify the big $

Just like past pitches convinced the board the money spent on Itanium, CLEAR, mobile, Tablets, Wind, Mcafee, Altera was money well spent.

I am highly confident past performance is an indicator of how this one will turn out as well. This zebra can't change its stripes so have confidence of the outcome!

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

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Post ID: @uai+MmLPUVW

@-kqm - I totally agree. If you look at the slides ( http://intelandmobileye.transactionannouncement.com/ ), they expect MBLY to be at about $1.5B in revenue by 2020, and that represents 7.5% of the 2020 vehicle-related TAM. 2030 is a looong way away, and they would have to develop a services model to address that data. That's a key piece that remains missing.

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Post ID: @krg+MmLPUVW

Bull__ap king would have said something similar when he bought Altera. If data services are where the cheese is, where is the need for Intel to acquire Mobileye. Since, Intel never played in the services sector, it is safe to assume that those services revenues will go to other players. That means Intel will continue to be the chip vendor in the cloud and data centers. And, how will Mobileye strengthen you data center offering, at a time your 10nm ramp looks like verical climb and you no new performance smarts in the x86 server CPU? I would submit that Mobileye will be a huge distraction for a company that is already pole walking with 20 other weights dangling from it's body, arms, limbs and neck. It would take enormous guys or enormous stupidity to do this at this time. We will know for sure in the next 2-3 years.

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Post ID: @kqm+MmLPUVW

From the 3/13 Investors' Call (this is BK talking):

"... we think that the market is actually quite a bit bigger than just that $70 billion TAM,

though. That $70 billion TAM is really what I'll call the hardware and software systems that are required to build out the services and hardware systems in the vehicle itself. And then you can kind of see that in that middle chart there where you can see on the right hand side the 2030 chart, the vehicle systems is the hardware and software within the vehicle, and the data and services are some of those things like pushing the data out to the cloud and being able to provide some navigational information as well, as you go and move along. But if you look to the right

hand side, we think there is an additional set of incremental opportunity that drives this to that greater than $100 billion and that is really this cloud and data center and network connectivity. These cars are going to require higher and higher levels of connectivity and larger and larger amounts of data center and cloud computing as you're starting to increase the mapping requirements, the learning and algorithm improvements as we continue to drive this autonomy and move forward. And that's where we really see this market moving to. It's a $100 billion TAM and this acquisition allows us to play from end to end kind of what we talk about is from the data center, all the way down through the connectivity into the car and ride out to the edge

of the car and the cameras that are out viewing the world."

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Post ID: @tgm+MmLPUVW

BK stated that this would be a $70 billion vehicle systems and data services TAM opportunity by 2030, implying not only vehicle ADAS and beyond, but the servicing of all the data. Yes, the virtuous cycle is a little squishy, but you have to factor some of that in. I just have no earthly idea how.

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Post ID: @nkq+MmLPUVW

BK brilliance, even redo the math and say the computation requires a Xeon rack and say 10000 today bucks. The electronic content of cars is skyrocketing but remember you think you'd take the four to ten year old computional engine locked into a car, nope it will be your cellphone that does it, intel failed there! Yeah their are sensors are in the car and integration, but that a few hundred dollars, maybe even 500. The intelligence will be in your phone or the cloud and powered thru 5G.

Guess who owns the smartphone ? Guess who will own the cloud, the ARMy!

Also with an autonomous car I go from four cars in my family to ZERO as my family and I can likely share a quarter of a car.

Wasted money casing another fad by BK

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Post ID: @srg+MmLPUVW

Once cars are self diving I won't own one. Just use UBER for $2 a commute since no driver wages and electric is cheesier than gas.

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Post ID: @ahx+MmLPUVW

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