Or is this whole investigation into his deals just going to fizzle out, like everything else about Sears?
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1wnu - "Perhaps: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation will take over the pension obligations and former employee's pension benefits will be reduced, perhaps significantly."
While the first half of your statement is probably correct, the second half of your statement is patently false! The PBGC has issued a statement regarding the SHLD pension plan. Note: "PBGC expects that its guarantees would cover the vast majority of benefits earned under those Sears plans."
https://www.pbgc.gov/news/press/releases/pbgc-statement-on-sears-bankruptcy-filing
No one can predict the SHLD's future. But you can speculate about the most likely outcome in SHLD's bankruptcy case All roads in SHLD's bankruptcy seem to lead to one place - all of the related entities for the man in charge of this affair.
Most likely: The bankruptcy court will approve almost every motion put forward to the court by management, including the Chairman, who , counting related parties, may also the the largest secured creditor, and may be the majority shareholder for the SHLD's largest landlord. There will be objections during the process but most likely without any material impact on the outcome.
Perhaps: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation will take over the pension obligations and former employee's pension benefits will be reduced, perhaps significantly.
Perhaps: Seritage, with the committed capital of one of the world's wealthiest men, will grow and prosper. In the next five years, the majority shareholder and the man from Nebraska will probably realize profits on SHLD's former real estate far and above any current of it's current projections.
Perhaps: The 400 stores and leases will possibly be owned free and clear after bankruptcy by the some or all of the closely related entities that were deeply intertwined in SHLD's organization prior to bankruptcy. The new owners of the former SHLD real estate will probably realize long term profits structured far more profitable than any other part of the former SHLD organization - including Seritage
Perhaps: The secured creditors of SHLD may see an impressive recovery of their claims.
Perhaps: As a result, unsecured claims could be be paid at a few pennies on the dollar.
Shareholders will likely receive zero.
You missed only one thing. The former CEO is going to make a boat load of money.